The Denver Nuggets got a serious wakeup call on Saturday night against the Los Angeles Lakers, ending a nine-game winning streak abruptly.

I wrote about all of that in yesterday’s article. Now, it’s time to turn the page. The Indiana Pacers are a very, very good team, and they’re a great first test for the Nuggets on a four-game road trip across the Eastern Conference.

Let’s delve into the Indiana Pacers matchup:

Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner

Key Bench Players

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Zeke Nnaji, DeAndre Jordan

Indiana: TJ McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Shepphard, Obi Toppin, Thomas Bryant

Notable Injuries

Denver: Jamal Murray – PROBABLE, Aaron Gordon – PROBABLE, Peyton Watson – OUT, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Indiana: Second Night of Back-to-Back, so we will see. Nobody of note missed last night’s game.

Key for the Nuggets – Paint Scoring

The Nuggets lead the NBA in points in the paint, averaging 59.2 paint points per game. Against the Lakers, they had just 30 paint points, their lowest total of the season.

On the season, the Nuggets are 7-14 when they score fewer than 54 points in the paint. When they score 54 or more? They’re 30-6. The formula for the Nuggets is easy, and they need to get back to it. Denver can’t win games with their shotmaking anymore. At least, it’s not a reliable option with their current personnel.

Defensively, the Pacers rank sixth in paint points per game at 51.9 paint points. They’re a slashing team and perimeter cutting team while the Nuggets are an interior cutting team, but the end result is often the same. Denver allows a bunch of paint scoring, and if the Nuggets give up the paint over and over again, the Pacers will take advantage.

Important Matchup – Tyrese Haliburton vs Christian Braun

The Pacers are a well balanced team, but if there’s a head of the snake, it’s still Tyrese Haliburton. He’s dynamic as a playmaker, and though he’s had a down year overall, he’s averaging 18.9 points and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 42.1% from three-point range since January 1st. If the Nuggets are going to slow down the Pacers offense in any way, they need Haliburton to feel some pressure.

Christian Braun was unable to seriously pressure Luka Doncic on Saturday night. That’s not a denigrating statement either. Doncic is excellent and Braun is still learning. Haliburton is a different type of matchup, but Braun has to be ready for it regardless and find a way to force some turnovers will his ball pressure.

On the other end of the floor, Braun had a minimal impact offensively against the Lakers. Haliburton will guard him most of the night with the starters, so Braun has to be a threat in both transition and halfcourt settings. Seven shots isn’t going to cut it unless he also gets to the free throw line seven times.

Number of the Day – Minus 14.4

-14.4 points per 100 possessions is the Net Rating in the 147 possessions with Aaron Gordon playing center this season. When Nikola Jokic, DeAndre Jordan, and Dario Saric (small sample size) are off the floor, the Nuggets small ball unit with Gordon is often their “Ace up their sleeve” for playoff and high leverage situations. When in doubt, bring Aaron Gordon out and switch everything, run the floor, and let him be a playmaker.

That hasn’t worked this year. Admittedly, it’s a small sample size, but the Nuggets have a 102.8 offensive rating and 117.4 defensive rating in the Gordon at center minutes. Isolate minutes with Jamal Murray on the floor as well, and it’s actually worse (-17.8 Net Rating in 104 possessions). That’s bad. That’s Denver’s default playoff unit with Jokic off the floor.

Maybe it gets better in the playoffs, especially depending on the matchup. In previous seasons though, this lineup was almost always a good one in the regular season, and it’s notable that it’s not anywhere close to good at this stage.

Nugget who should have a good game: Michael Porter Jr.

Let’s try this again. Michael Porter Jr.’s first two games since the All-Star break have been below his standard by a lot. He looks uncomfortable shooting the ball from distance, and the physicality the Lakers played with caused some tentativeness from him.

The Pacers are also physical, but they’re smaller. Aaron Nesmith is 6’6″, as are both Ben Shepphard and Bennedict Mathurin on the wing. Obi Toppin isn’t guarding him the way Porter needs to be defended. Pascal Siakam will be busy guarding Aaron Gordon, perhaps even switching onto Nikola Jokic.

If the Nuggets can get out and run, and if Turner guards Jokic, the cutting lanes underneath will be open. Porter can take advantage if he puts his head down, and I expect him to play with some purpose in this matchup.