Which Denver Broncos back in fantasy football should you take: R.J. Harvey or J.K. Dobbins?
It’s seemingly a tough choice, but some in the national media are certainly sold on Harvey as the must-pick Broncos running back.
Meanwhile, Dobbins is coming off a career year and is a red zone threat, meaning both players are likely to bring some value to your team this year.
Which Denver Broncos back in fantasy football: Harvey or Dobbins?
According to ADP and rankings, Harvey is the Denver Broncos back in fantasy football you should draft first. No doubt about it.
Fantasy Pros has Harvey ranked as the 23rd-best fantasy back this year, with Dobbins way down the list at No. 52 in standard scoring leagues. Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus has Harvey in Tier 4 at 19th, and Dobbins in Tier 5 at 43rd. In overall ADP, Harvey is 59th while Dobbins is 149th.
And Nathan Jahnke of PFF listed Harvey as one of his rookies with a favorable ADP, listed as 5.08.
“A big reason for optimism around Harvey is that he gets to play in Sean Payton’s offense. Broncos running backs have caught 214 passes over the past two years, which is more than any other team.”
As Denny Carter of NBC Sports also echoed:
“It wouldn’t make much sense for Dobbins — one of the least efficient pass-catching RBs in football last year — to function as Denver’s primary backfield pass catcher. Harvey still appears to be the best fit for that role — a crucial role in the Payton offense.”
It’s clear the expectation is Harvey will be the best Denver Broncos back in fantasy, but it’s all dependent on his pass-catching abilities. People see Harvey, with his 4.4 40-yard dash speed, in Sean Payton’s offense as the next coming of Alvin Kamara.
But Payton, himself, pumped the breaks on his receiving abilities after last month’s minicamp.
“Good. He’s doing well. We haven’t given him his Joker wings or any of that yet, but he’s doing well.”
Notably, a few days later, they signed J.K. Dobbins to the roster. There remains a question of why the Broncos signed Dobbins if they’re sold on Harvey. It’s possible they got a close look at him in camp and decided he’s too small (5’8″ and 208 pounds) to be a three-down back. Or, his hands aren’t as good as they hoped. Or, most likely, that the team needed another back because Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime aren’t cutting it.
Dobbins will factor into this offense in a major way
As we sit here on July 8, there’s a big time chance that Dobbins will be the starting running back in September. At the very least, at some point this season.
Last year, Payton started or featured different backs week after week, trying to find the right hand to feed at the right time. And Bo Nix was their most explosive option on the ground, with six of the team’s ten explosive runs (20+ yards).
Dobbins had six of those runs himself for the Chargers last year. Yes, he’s the bigger back (5’10” and 215 pounds) but the dude can still scoot in the open field. And Denver’s offensive line–which remains unchanged from last year–was first in ESPN’s run block win rate.
The veteran running back just came off his best season ever in Los Angeles, with 905 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, each career-highs. That included four missed games due to injury.
Looking at his splits, a few things become clear quickly about Dobbins: He’s a short-yardage machine and tough to tackle.
Last year, he rushed for a stellar 7.0 YPC average on downs with 1-3 yards to go. He picked up 27 first downs in those instances, and scored five touchdowns. And in the red zone, Dobbins rushed for 10 first downs and seven of his touchdowns.
He may not be a great pass catcher, with 32 receptions for 153 yards last year, but he can move the chains, put the ball in the end zone, and pass protect.
Simply from a touchdown scoring perspective, Dobbins is a threat to Harvey’s point totals because the bigger back will be in on those short-yardage situations. If he plays well, Dobbins could become, or even start out the season as the Broncos lead back.
If you’re extremely high on Harvey, one option could be to take Dobbins as a handcuff possibility late in the draft. Or, if you believe that Dobbins could actually be the Broncos main back this year, you could find him in rounds 12-14 as a No. 3 back and a complete steal.
In a short two years, the Broncos have gone from a team with one fantasy option to an offense with many solid players. Bo Nix will be a top-10 fantasy QB this year and Evan Engram has a chance to be in the top-10 among tight ends, too.
And if Harvey exceeds expectations, he could land in the top-10 at that position as well.
