In the NBA, it’s important to never get too high or too low. A team is never as good as they think they are, nor are they never as bad as they think they are in the moment.

For the 11-3 Denver Nuggets and 10-3 Houston Rockets, this is especially important advice.

Only one team can win tonight. Only one team can truly stay alive in the NBA Cup. Only one team will have bragging rights for about a month when they play each other again.

In the grand scheme of 82 games, one matchup in November doesn’t define a championship story.

But it does start painting the championship picture.

Through 14 games, the best team the Nuggets have played is the Minnesota Timberwolves twice. In the first matchup, the Timberwolves were without superstar Anthony Edwards. In the second matchup, the Nuggets were without Christian Braun and Cam Johnson, but the Timberwolves were on a second night of a back-to-back.

The Nuggets won both games, which should emphasize that the Timberwolves don’t “own” the Nuggets anymore after Denver had lost six in a row to them (regular season and playoffs). It doesn’t however, define that Denver will win a playoff series against Minnesota. Deciding that in November would be ludicrous.

Outside of those two matchups, the Nuggets have lost three games to Golden State (opening night), to Portland on the road (it happens), and to Chicago at home (it shouldn’t happen but did).

Denver’s wins by comparison have come against Phoenix (a surprisingly good win), New Orleans twice, Sacramento twice, the Warriors without Stephen Curry, the Miami Heat without Bam Adebayo, the Indiana Pacers without several players, and the shamefully bad Los Angeles Clippers (without Kawhi Leonard).

Denver hasn’t had a tough schedule thus for, which emphasizes how noticeably different this Rockets game is as a change-of-pace early in the year.

I like to look at games like this as measuring stick games. They don’t define playoff performance, but they do show how a team’s principles, tendencies, and overall levels match up with a team that isn’t average or worse.

The Rockets are certainly not a bad or average team. In fact, they’re currently second in the NBA in adjusted Net Rating, per Dunks and Threes, behind only the vaunted Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets rank third in a the same statistic.

This is only the second time any of those three top Western Conference (NBA) teams have matched up against each other. The first time was opening night for both the Thunder and Rockets in which they battled into double overtime before the Thunder ultimately prevailed. Could we see another big battle between the Nuggets and Rockets tonight? Who knows?

For the Nuggets, there are five teams and their respective matchups with Denver that matter to me more than other games this year, the top contenders in the NBA: the Thunder, Rockets, Timberwolves, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks. Here are those games all laid out on the schedule:

  • October 27th @ Minnesota (Win)
  • November 15th @ Minnesota (Win)
  • November 21st (tonight) @ Houston
  • December 20th vs Houston
  • December 25th vs Minnesota
  • January 2nd @ Cleveland
  • February 1st vs Oklahoma City
  • February 4th @ New York
  • February 9th vs Cleveland
  • February 27th @ Oklahoma City
  • March 1st vs Minnesota
  • March 6th vs New York
  • March 9th @ Oklahoma City
  • March 11th vs Houston
  • April 10th vs Oklahoma City

15 total games vs some of the best teams in the NBA. Denver shouldn’t expect to win them all, nor should the fans. There are also other teams that are notably good right now (Detroit, LA Lakers, San Antonio) that will provide challenges throughout the year too.

But these are the games I circled before, the measuring stick games. Denver’s already won two of them (though Minnesota was compromised in the first one). All Denver can do is approach each of these games with seriousness and intent.

Tonight, Houston is that matchup. Kevin Durant is the leading scorer, but it’s possible that Alperen Sengun is the best player with how he’s performing. Amen Thompson has taken a leap as a perimeter playmaker in the absence of Fred VanVleet. Reed Sheppard has also been a tremendous scorer off the bench. Steven Adams is the best rebounder in the NBA, leading the league with 5.2 offensive rebounds per game in JUST 22.3 minutes per night. Absurd.

The Rockets are a well-rounded contender with elite level talent across the board. They can shoot, but they don’t have to. They can defend every position. They now have a go-to scorer, but they also have a driver of offense in Sengun to complement Durant’s singular skill set as a bucket getter.

This will be a great test for the Nuggets. It won’t define their ability as a contender, but it gives fans a better picture of how they stand up to the best teams in the NBA.

I’m looking forward to the show.