The prevailing belief among Broncos Country in regard to the team’s first-round pick is that the team will almost definitely draft a cornerback to upgrade one of their weaker position groups from the previous season, and fill the hole left by A.J. Bouye.
However, let’s remember that while cornerback is a likely target, it isn’t a surefire pick for the Broncos in the first round. Nor does it need to be.
Almost every mock draft I see has the Broncos taking a CB.
Two things:
1. I am not so sure they're going to be picking at 9.
2. I'm not so sure I'd be pencilling a corner in there.— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) March 5, 2021
The first big reason that cornerback isn’t a guarantee in the first round is that the cornerback situation isn’t as dire as it might seem right now on paper.
Bryce Callahan played like one of the three-or-five best cornerbacks in football last season and — despite his size — can play either inside or outside.
Ojemudia had his ups and downs as a rookie, but it’s rare that a cornerback doesn’t experience that in year one. Ojemudia’s production compares favorably to his rookie peers, ranking among the top three rookie corners with at least 150 snaps in both snaps per reception and snaps per target. He also ranks among the top 10 rookie corners in both yards allowed per snap and passer rating allowed per snap.
He won’t be a superstar in 2021, but it’s far from outlandish to believe that a third-round pick, who played great in spurts as a rookie, can make the leap to a starting job in year two. Especially now that Ojemudia will have a full off-season that won’t be as impacted by COVID as last year’s was.
Duke Dawson is also on the roster and has provided solid play at nickel cornerback, and has even been a serviceable third safety at times for the Broncos.
That’s not a great starting cornerback group by any means. It would likely rank in the bottom third of the league and banking on Ojemudia to start and Callahan to stay healthy is dubious, but in Vic Fangio’s cornerback-friendly scheme, it could be a passable unit.
That’s without even mentioning intriguing depth pieces like De’Vante Bausby, as well as, Parnell Motley and Essang Bassey who played well for undrafted rookies. The Broncos might also re-sign Will Parks, who’s played great at nickel for them the past two seasons
The pre-draft cornerback room doesn’t end there either though, as the Broncos will almost certainly add a veteran free agent cornerback to serve as one of their starters, and could even double-up with another cornerback signing to serve as depth.
Even if the Broncos sign just one starting veteran free agent at cornerback, that gives them an elite starter, another reliable piece, and two depth pieces in Ojemudia and Dawson that could start if necessary, with Bausby, Motley, Bassey and Parks all potentially behind that.
The Broncos could then draft Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II, or even a less ideal option like Asante Samuel Jr. and Eric Stokes at the top of the second and be fine at cornerback.
In this weird, salary-cap-reduced off-season, it will be almost impossible for George Paton to make it elite, but it shouldn’t be that difficult to make it respectable. While investing a first-round pick into a player like Farley would undeniably raise the unit’s ceiling, it’s not necessarily something Denver must do.
The second big reason is that there are more premium positions the Broncos might prefer to invest their first-round pick in.
Drew Lock certainly could develop, but as of now, the quarterback position is a need and having the ninth overall pick in a loaded quarterback class gives you an appetizing avenue to address that need.
If Von Miller signs elsewhere as a free agent, it wouldn’t be crazy to argue that edge is the more sensible first-round target for the Broncos. Especially when considering this year’s edge class has much less top-end talent and depth than the cornerback class.
The defensive line is another sneakily large need. Shelby Harris, DeMarcus Walker and other, less-important depth pieces along the defensive line are primed to hit free agency. If Denver isn’t able to bring them back, they’ll have a defensive line made up of Mike Purcell, Dre’Mont Jones, Deshawn Williams and McTelvin Agim. The value doesn’t line up with the ninth-pick, but it’s a pressing enough need to potentially incentivize the Broncos to trade back and target a player like Alabama’s Christian Barmore.
Cornerback is a large need for the Broncos, but it also isn’t their only position group with a glaring lack of talent. As a result, the Broncos have multiple directions they could take in the first round.
