Let’s start off by acknowledging the two reasons the Denver Broncos shouldn’t consider drafting Trey Lance.
First, the fit is really odd considering Pat Shurmur’s offensive system and Lance’s need for development and time. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields would all be more ideal fits, even if they aren’t the best fit for Shurmur’s scheme either.
Second, because of Lance’s need for development, it would be very odd to pair him with Lock.
Those are the only two fundamental reasons that the Broncos shouldn’t consider Lance, and even those reasons are marked with several flaws. There are other subjective ones that will change from person-to-person depending on their opinion of Lance’s college tape, but for now, let’s focus on those more philosophical concerns.
The flaws in not taking a quarterback with the ninth pick
In regard to forecasting what the Broncos will do with the ninth pick, there are two primary schools of thought. Either they could take the best cornerback in the draft, Caleb Farley, or they could trade down in an effort to accrue more picks, but selecting Lance could be just as appealing as either one of those avenues.
For starters, the Broncos quarterback situation is holding them back far more than the cornerback situation is. Some of that is because the quarterback position is much more valuable, but another piece of the puzzle is that through more health and the development of Michael Ojemudia, the cornerback room should be better next year with the addition of just one mid-level free agent.
Plus, outside of cornerback, there aren’t many spots on Denver’s roster that need an instant-impact starter. On offense, you might need a right tackle depending on Ja’Wuan James, and a quarterback depending on Lock. On defense, you need to add pieces at cornerback and defensive line, but most of Denver’s needs have more to do with a future hole that will be created in the roster (replacing Von Miller and Kareem Jackson) as opposed to one that currently exists.
They don’t need to acquire a boatload of picks in order to fill those future needs or those holes in their depth.
Trading down is appealing, but it doesn’t outweigh the appeal of solving the quarterback position, and if they’re going to attempt to find that solution through the draft, now is the time to do so.
The 2020 season went so much worse than what could’ve been imagined and the Broncos still barely landed a top-10 pick, so it’s unlikely they’re picking top-10 next season. The roster will continue to develop and they’ll almost certainly have an easier schedule.
Plus, the 2021 quarterback class is historically talented, with only the legendary 1984 class and the 2018 class rivaling it in terms of projected quarterback draft value (2018 was the only other time in the modern era we’ve seen five quarterbacks in the first round, with four in the top 10, as the 2021 class is projected to do), so it would be foolish to expect the 2022 class to match it in terms of pre-draft expectations.
Do pre-draft expectations always turn into reality? No, of course not, but in this primordial stage of their careers, it’s the best and only metric we have. Also, just because the 2022 class could become as gifted as this year’s class, the Broncos shouldn’t make their decision at quarterback off the expectation it will become as gifted, especially considering the bedrock-low likelihood of such a thing happening.
Shurmur is the problem. Not Lance.
Of the top four quarterbacks in the 2021 class, Lance might be the most awkward fit with the Broncos, but with the other three gone, they don’t have a choice.
For starters, He’s very inexperienced and the little experience he does have comes at the FCS level with a juggernaut roster surrounding him. His team had a sizable talent advantage almost every week.
His fit with offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is another big concern, as quarterback runs aren’t something he’s ever utilized much. Those concerns are exasperated when combined with the fact that Shurmur is on the hot seat, which could lead to Lance having to learn two different offenses in as many seasons, the first of which not being a natural fit for him.
However, if your team isn’t compatible with a super talent at the game’s most important position (like Lance), the problem isn’t the super talent. Much like how the average Joe isn’t compatible to a relationship with a supermodel. The problem is on your end, and in this case, on Shurmur’s end.
That’s not to say that offensive fit isn’t a factor, mind you. Offensive fit is very important. It just comes down to who is being asked to fit whom.
Smart NFL teams in the modern NFL are fitting their offenses to the strengths of their young quarterbacks, as opposed to forcing the future of their franchise to adjust to the system of a stubborn offensive coordinator already on the hot seat. The pressure shouldn’t be on Lance — or even Lock for that matter — to adjust to Shurmur. Instead, the pressure should be on Shurmur to develop the offense that best accentuates the strengths of his young quarterback, while hiding their weaknesses.
Though, if you have doubt in Shurmur’s ability to do just that, it’s hard to blame you, considering what we just watched.
One beacon of hope for Lance fanatics, which hasn’t been discussed much, is that Mike Shula is on the team as the quarterback coach, and he could maybe help Shurmur add some concepts that play more to Lance’s strengths. Shula was the offensive coordinator for Cam Newton for five seasons (including his 2015 MVP campaign) and was his quarterback coach for the two seasons before that.
You would think with both Shurmur and Shula on the hot seat, that a request from their boss to inject some more Lance-friendly concepts into the offense wouldn’t be so easy to dismiss.
What about Lock?
The other point of conflict is how Lance would fit on the roster with Lock. Lance would ideally sit for a year, considering his inexperience, but it would be weird to sit him behind Lock, as that would rob both players of potential mentorship.
It would also heavily eat into the practice time of each player, which is a major concern as both players will need a good deal of development to reach their potential
This problem is much easier to fix though, as the Broncos could simply bring in a player like Tyrod Taylor as a veteran mentor, though Andy Dalton and Nick Foles could potentially work too — as they already plan to do for Lock more or less — and then just swap Lock for a mid-round pick once they’ve selected Lance.
Dalton and Foles (and similar quarterbacks) don’t match Lance stylistically, but you could still utilize them as mentors, and then get Lance onto the field as a rookie in creative packages.
So really, the Broncos don’t have to adjust their plan. Sign Dalton, and if you select Lance, Lock shouldn’t be too difficult to trade. There were already reports this off-season that some teams were calling the Broncos about Lock, though we don’t know if they were offering the first-overall pick or a seventh-round selection.
