Bo Nix is improving, both in terms of standard stats as well as analytical categories.
The rookie quarterback started his career off slowly. He and the Denver Broncos went 0-2 in their first two weeks, with Nix throwing four interceptions during that span.
But Nix bounced back in the upset Week 3 win against Tampa Bay. His great play was a huge reason why the Broncos won their first game of the year.
Bo Nix improved against Tampa Bay, and the numbers prove it
Like any first-round quarterback, Nix is under a microscope in the Mile High City.
Fans, coaches, and analysts want to see if Sean Payton and Co. struck gold with the kid.
And while we all knew it would be a long process, some started freaking out after two weeks of poor play.
Then, Bo Nix played the best game of his young career on Sunday in Tampa Bay.
He went 25-36 (69.4%) for 216 yards and zero turnovers. He also ran a touchdown in and conducted the offense in a calm and efficient manner. It was the highest completion percentage of his career to this point, the 85.0 passer rating was his highest yet, just like his QBR 80.6.
Even more numbers prove it was the best game yet for Nix.
For one, his completion percentage over expected (CPOE) was +4.9 per RBSDM, which was 18th last week. CPOE uses contextual factors–like down and distance, the difficulty of the throw, etc.–to help determine how accurate a quarterback was.
Next, Nix’s rank in adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play increased to 20th this week (.02). He was 27th after two weeks (-.06).
Adjusted EPA Leaderboard through week 3. Thanks to @FTNData
In stark contrast to last year when the adjustments pulled him down, Brock Purdy gets a large positive adjustment for his receivers being unable to catch pic.twitter.com/ETqgdJaQ59
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 25, 2024
Adjusted EPA per play is a way to measure a quarterback’s performance and how his play contributes to scoring points.
Finally, Bo Nix’s Pro Football Focus grade was his highest yet, at 74.1. His PFF overall grade put him at 10th-best in Week 3.
Will Bo continue to grow, or plummet back to earth this week?
The New York Jets are a difficult defense for any quarterback to face. Meaning it will likely be a long week for Bo Nix and the Broncos offense.
The Jets defense has “held passers to the ninth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the 10th-lowest success rate per dropback” per Fantasy Pros.
That group has allowed only a single touchdown this year, and Nix has still yet to throw for one.
In fact, it’s the first time in the history of the Denver Broncos they haven’t thrown for a touchdown through three weeks of play. So, it seems unlikely that streak will end this week.
New York is also tied for second-most sacks on the season with 14.0, with Will McDonald leading the team with 5.0 of his own.
The good news on that front is Nix has proven to be a difficult quarterback to sack. The rookie has been sacked only 3.5% of the time, while his pocket has been clean only 55% of his dropbacks.
How often teams give their QBs clean pockets 🆚 how often they allow sacks 🛡️ https://t.co/EL4GKXKJkv pic.twitter.com/WyRMWq4nre
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) September 25, 2024
This scramble from last Sunday shows Nix’s escapability and Tim Jenkins can’t believe he felt the pressure.
Bo Nix 👀’s in the back of his head fam pic.twitter.com/WCTNaqXmF4
— Tim Jenkins (@TJenkinsElite) September 23, 2024
What Denver’s quarterback has to do this Sunday to keep improving is play like he did last week. He has to protect the ball, and it’s no surprise the Broncos earned their first win on their first zero turnover day. Nix needs to also play smart when he’s being pressured. Whether that means dumping the ball off, throwing it away, or even taking a sack rather than throwing a pick.
This will be a tough test for the rookie and the rest of the Broncos, on the road against a fired up Jets team.
Denver (1-2) vs. New York (2-1) kicks off at 11 a.m. MDT on Sunday, Sept. 29.