Hey there Colorado Rockies fans!
It has been a minute since we did out last Q&A/mailbag and with the trade deadline in the rear-view mirror and the final focuses of the season coming into view, I figured this would be a good time to check the pulse of the fanbase and answer a few of your most pressing Rox questions.
@SidelinesColo: “Do you see an effort to clean house, similar to what the White Sox did recently? I know Bud [Black] is a likable person in the clubhouse, I like him too. But at what point do you let loose and bring someone else in?
DC: I doubt we will ever see a full “clean house” as you put it but to your other point, I see much more of a possibility for the Rockies to part ways with Black than I have at any other point during his tenure. The fact that we have not yet heard anything about an extension speaks volumes.
I will say that I think it is important to note that Black isn’t just the manager of this team because his players, front office, and most of the media like him. He did wonders with a young and inexperienced pitching staff his first two years in Denver leading directly to the only consecutive postseason appearances in franchise history.
Also, by all accounts, it isn’t Black’s fault that the team alienated Nolan Arenado, made an atrocious trade, and squandered the talent they had from their last window of contention. Looking at the roster construction (the GM and owner’s job) over the last several seasons, it’s difficult to pin many of the losses on the manager.
That said, his tendency to rely on veterans and insist upon always playing to win each game have at times put him at odds with a team that needs to be hyper focused on the youth movement in order to usher in the next window of contention.
At this point I think it’s 50/50 that he stays/goes and have come to believe that this club, at the specific moment in time, could do with an injection of fresh leadership but also at times have to wonder if Black can repeat what he did with Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland but this time with Chase Dollander, Carson Palmquist, Sean Sullivan, and Brody Brecht.
@EJSanchez22: “Do you view the team on a similar trajectory as ‘16? I know the SP is a year, maybe two behind (CD, Sully, Palmquist) but the core of Tovar, Doyle, and Mac seems similar. I know DJ was winning batting titles and Nolan was 30+ homers… maybe I’m blindly optimistic.”
I don’t think you’re being blindly optimistic EJ, though history shows those accusations have been lobbied at me once or twice as well so who knows!
More importantly, I think your comparison is apt but requires us to go back one year further in order to get the full picture.
The 2015 Rockies lost 94 games and traded Troy Tulowitzki in the middle of the year. They had a team OPS+ of 89 and a team ERA+ of 92. For comparison the 2024 Rockies have a team OPS+ of 91 and an ERA+ of 82, which shows you that the pitching is where the dramatic improvement must come from.
You’re correct in my mind to compare the core of Tovar, Doyle, and Ryan McMahon to Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and DJ LeMahieu. Nolan Jones even makes a perfect comp for Trevor Story as a guy who broke out with a brilliant rookie campaign but struggled with injuries and production in an intense sophomore slump.
So in order for this all to work, Dollander, Sullivan, Palmquist, Brecht and a few others are going to need to repeat what happened back then.
The top six pitchers in terms of innings for the ‘15 Rox were, in order: Jorge de la Rosa, Kyle Kendrick, Chris Rusin, Chad Bettis, Eddie Butler, and David Hale.
They had only three pitchers – JDLR, Bettis, and closer John Axford – who finished above the league average of 100 ERA+ and they were at 111, 110, and 110 respectively.
Two years later, only Rusin and Bettis were still on the roster and both in very different roles.
The 2017 top six in terms of IP were: German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Chatwood, Antonio Senzatela, Jon Gray, and Jeff Hoffman. They had a whopping 12 pitchers at an ERA+ of 100 or better. Five of them had an ERA+ of 120 or better and three managed 140 or better.
This is the task set in front of Dollander, Palmquist, Sullivan, and Brecht as well as relievers like Jaden Hill and potentially a starter like Ryan Feltner who could follow in the footsteps of Chris Rusin and turn a frustrating stint as a starter into becoming one of the most valuable members of the ‘pen.
An army of new pitchers can change this team’s fortunes fast. It has before.
We could dive much deeper into this (and will on the 20th and Blake Podcast) but the biggest point here should be that yes, it is absolutely possible for this thing to turn around very quickly, but there is a LOT of work that will need to be done to make that happen.
@kstock21: “Obvious question – time to call up Beck?
@RckyMtnThunder: “Am I wrong to be excited about the young talent?”
On a similar note, it makes a ton of sense that Rockies fans are focus on this youth movement and Jordan Beck is a perfect example of exactly why, despite all the fair criticisms of the team, it makes sense to have hope and excitement for the future.
Before the draft, your Rockies had more Top 100 prospects (MLB Pipeline) than 29 other teams in MLB and they added to it with a, by all accounts, fantastic draft yet again.
Charlie Condon is the real deal and should blaze through the minor leagues. You couldn’t have asked for a better year on the farm for the pitchers, and not just the guys we’ve already mentioned here. Guys like Adael Amador, Yanquiel Fernandez, and Drew Romo have all taken important big steps forward and are right on the cusp of being ready. The same could be said for Zac Veen if he could stay a little more consistently healthy.
And then there’s Jordan Beck.
That’s when you really start to realize the potential this team has, especially in the outfield. The guy has simply torched Triple-A this year and if not for an injury would likely have spent more time in right field (or maybe left with Jones out) at the MLB level than anyone else. Alas, the fates had other plans but whenever he does make his return, the Rockies will once again want to make sure it is in a fashion so that he can play every day.
Once we get to September, I suspect we will be seeing a lot more of Beck, maybe some Amador or Romo, and probably Palmquist on the pitching side.
Either way, just like the last time the Rox turned it around, we are in for a lot of roster turnover in the next year or two so buckle up!
