The Denver Broncos offense starting hot is key this week.
Of course, it was a point of emphasis last year too.
But if Sean Payton’s Broncos can start things off the right way on Monday against a tough Steve Spagnuolo-led defense it will bode well for the season.
Denver Broncos offense starting hot is key to success
Offensive struggles early in the season have been the calling card of Payton’s Broncos the last few years.
In 2024, they put up just 26 points in the first two games and turned the ball over five total times. Denver started 0-2.
Last year, they started out 1-2, with five more turnovers in the first two games. The squeaked by the terrible Titans. Then, Bo Nix’s late interception and the silly special teams penalty sunk them vs. Indianapolis. And Nix’s three deep incompletions led to a loss against the Chargers.
That was with a rookie and then a second-year quarterback. Give the Broncos some slack.
This year though, there’s no excuse. Bo Nix needs to take a huge step forward in Year 3, and the Broncos offense can’t stumble out of the gates yet again.
“I think there’s an overriding goal of… I think we can start faster in general,” Payton said in early August. “If you looked at last season, we played better, I think, in the second half of a lot of games than maybe the first. The reality of it is, when a series starts, the first first down is a big play for the offense. Now you’re in a drive. You can’t call it a drive if you don’t get your first first down.”
Denver’s drive time (2:49) and plays per drive (5.98) were 20th and 18th, respectively. And Jeremy Crawshaw punted a total of 75 times, which was third-most in the league behind only Cleveland and Tennessee.
It seems crazy when looking back at their 14-3 record, but the Broncos offense was mostly awful for the first six weeks of the season, and for most of the game against the Giants in Week 7. All until that 33-point 4th quarter and insane comeback.
In fact, all five games they won to that point in the season were comebacks. And Denver went 11-2 in one-score games last year, a mark that no one expects to be sustainable this year.
“So the best way to get better in those one-score games is find your way not in as many, and I mean that,” Payton said in July. “I don’t want to chase that whatever of 13 again. You’d like to not be in as many.”
Since 2023, Payton helped the Broncos first learn how to win games. Then, he taught them what it takes to be a playoff team. Last year, Payton instilled resilience and confidence into his Broncos, helping them believe they’re Super Bowl contenders.
Now with that target on their back, Denver needs to control games instead of claw to come back.
Starting hot could be difficult against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense
“Spags” is well regarded as one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL today.
Payton knows it will be difficult to move the ball against the Chiefs, especially in Kansas City, on Monday.
“Steve has always done a great job disguising looks, giving you zone-pressure looks. He’s not afraid to play zero,” Payton explained on Monday. “You’re going to have to have a real good protection plan and be disciplined in your approach, especially when you’re facing that defense on the road with the noise.”
While 2025 was a hugely disappointing year for the Chiefs — they finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs — their defense was still 6th in points allowed (19.3 PPG).
They were also 8th in red zone scoring percentage (52.9%) and best in the league on fourth downs (26.1%).
Where Spagnuolo shines is in the pressures he sends. As Payton said, the Broncos and Nix need to be on the lookout for zone-pressure looks. As in, the defensive backs and some linebackers will drop into a zone coverage scheme, but Kansas City will still send pressure from somewhere.
Nix has struggled against the zone and excelled against man coverage in his first two years. Last year, he had a 45% success rate vs. zone compared to 49% vs. man. And according to Jeff Legwold, Nix was 28th in the league in creating positive plays against zone defenses coming into the Green Bay game, where he shredded their zone.
Nix needs to play better against the zone, yes, but what he has going for him is a new play-caller in Davis Webb, and a new playmaker in Jaylen Waddle. Waddle can use his speed and shiftiness to get open over the middle, where Nix has been deficient and hesitant to throw.
And something else in Denver’s favor this week is the fact that Kansas City lost their two starting cornerbacks. They traded Trend McDuffie to the Rams and then his playing partner Jaylen Watson followed him to LA. Now, L’Jarius Sneed will try to resurrect his career in K.C. after two years in Tennessee where he started a mere 12 games combined. Opposite of him is second-year man Nohl Williams, who was a backup last year and started 5 games while playing in all 17.
On top of that, the Chiefs also lost linebacker Leo Chenal to the Washington Commanders. Plus, starting safety Bryan Cook is gone, replaced by veteran Alohi Gilman, who started 12 games for the Ravens last year.
Simply, while Kansas City’s defense has been great as of late, there’s been a ton of turnover and they’ve lost some of their best players.
And even though it will be a raucous environment, Payton’s offense has a chance to start hot out of the gates and set the stage for the entire season.
