Who started with the ones? How many first-team reps did each guy get? Which quarterback was behind center for the most important parts of practice?
In one form or another, the same question has been asked umpteen times during the first four days of Broncos training camp. From the fans on the west side of the fields to the media members in the tents at the opposite end, everyone watching the orange and blue is trying to get a gauge on the team’s quarterback battle; in all corners of Dove Valley, onlookers are trying to glean some insight as to which of the three candidates has the edge.
Depending on the day, or perhaps even the moment in practice, the answers will vary wildly. A long touchdown throw here, a bad interception there and the conventional wisdom turns on a dime. From one minute to the next, a different horse seems to be nosing ahead.
There’s a more interesting question, however, that should be afoot during practice. Rather than being concerned with who has the edge as July turns into August, Broncos fans should be more worried about who has the job come September 8; that answer is the one that will determine the course of the franchise. And to that point, the options provide the answer to the query of the day: Who should Broncos fans be rooting for in the QB battle?
Each possible answer means wildly different things, providing a verdict that could perhaps shape the next decade in Denver. So there’s certainly a reason to be concerned with the outcome.
The best possible option for the Broncos is that Paxton Lynch wins the job – with “wins” being the operative word. He doesn’t need to be handed the gig. And no one wants him to get it by default. The first option would be setting up a rookie for failure, while the second would suggest that there isn’t truly a viable option on the roster. But if Lynch is able to go out during camp and preseason games, particularly the latter, and outplay his colleagues, then that’s an extremely positive sign.
Back in 2012, the Seattle Seahawks were planning on going with Matt Flynn at quarterback; they had just signed him to a $26 million deal, prying the little-used backup away from Green Bay to give them a steady hand behind center. But a funny thing happened on the route between free agency and opening day – during that time, a third-round pick named Russell Wilson kept making play after play after play. By the time the regular season had arrived, it was obvious to everyone – including Pete Carroll and the entire coaching staff – that the rookie had won the job. As a result, Wilson was named the starter and the rest is history; two Super Bowl trips and one world championship during his first four seasons in the league show that the Seahawks have one of the game’s best signal callers at the helm.
It’d be great if Lynch could follow a similar path. If during practices and exhibitions, he’s the quarterback making the most plays, igniting the offense and providing leadership, then he should win the job; there’d be no reason to make him wait. And much like in Seattle, that would suggest many great years ahead in Denver.
The next best outcome for the Broncos is that Mark Sanchez gets the nod. If that happens, it’s no knock against Lynch; it’s just a sign that the rookie needs some time to adapt to the pro game. Providing the youngster with a chance to watch and learn, rather than throwing him to the wolves, is not necessarily a bad thing. But that only happens if Sanchez proves that he’s capable of keeping his team out of trouble.
The formula for success with the veteran at the helm this season is simple: Avoid putting the defense in bad positions due to dumb mistakes and make a couple of plays per game when the opportunity arises. So if between now and Sept. 8, the former Jet and Eagle proves that untimely interceptions and butt fumbles are out of his repertoire, and that he can hit wide receivers who come open on play-action fakes, then he’s a viable option for the time being.
If Sanchez is the starter against the Panthers, the short-term situation looks fine, while the long-term plan remains in place. That’s the safe route, one that is clearly the most likely to happen.
One other option remains, however. There is the chance that Trevor Siemian wins the job. While that would be a nice story, as the seventh-round pick with zero career pass attempts becoming the starting quarterback for the defending Super Bowl champions is a script that even Hollywood would find too unbelievable, it would be a disastrous scenario for the Broncos.
Yes, there’s the slim chance that Siemian wins the gig because he’s a diamond in the rough. But the odds that Denver hit the quarterback lottery during last year’s draft are not good. Rather, he’s more likely to get the job because he proves to be the only non-terrible option on the depth chart.
That would mean that Sanchez flamed out, proving to be unable to avoid turnovers and mental mistakes. If that’s the case, then the “lean on the defense” plan goes out the window. Instead of having a veteran to rely on, the Broncos will be breaking in a quarterback with zero experience; that’s a recipe for avoidable losses – see Brian Griese turning the back-to-back champs into a 6-10 squad in 1999.
It would also mean that Lynch is in over his head. If the Broncos are going to play a quarterback who has never thrown an NFL pass, they might as well go with the one who is the future face of the franchise; it makes more sense to let the first-round pick learn through his mistakes than a guy most people saw as a borderline journeyman just 15 months ago. It would speak volumes if Denver decided it was better that Siemian learn on the job instead of Lynch; essentially, it would be admitting that they made a mistake in April.
Siemian behind center doesn’t move the franchise along. He brings the same inevitable blunders that come with inexperience, while not offsetting those mistakes with the notion that he’s getting polished for the next decade. With him, there’s no down-the-road benefit to enduring today’s problems. The Broncos would be better off to simply give Lynch the job. That’s a scenario that would at least get the future underway.
So as reports trickle in from Dove Valley, or those perched on the hillside see things for themselves, view the quarterback battle from a different perspective. Who wins out will speak volumes about the team’s future.
If Lynch wins the job outright, the Broncos have found their quarterback for the next decade. If Sanchez gets the nod, Denver can try to win with a Super Bowl-caliber roster while letting their young QB watch and learn. If Lynch is the choice by default, the 2016 season probably won’t see another deep playoff run, but it at least gets the train moving down the tracks toward the franchise’s future. And if Siemian is the best option, it means that both the short-term and long-term plans went up in smoke.
The ultimate answer is more important than the day-to-day questions.