At times, the Denver Nuggets appeared to be a title contender this past season.
From a 20-6 start to the season to a 12-0 close to the season, the Nuggets quite literally bookended their regular season with a 32-6 record. Very few teams in the NBA can say they had two streaks where the team ran that hot.
And yet, the 54-28 Nuggets went 22-22 during the middle of the regular season, caught up by the injury bug and frustrating levels of defense in the midst of the first prolonged absence of Nikola Jokic’s career. How the Nuggets responded to his absence, and then his return, indicated a squad that wanted to try to do the right things but also needed to seek out additional reasons to play defense consistently.
So, while there were moments of greatness in Denver, it was rarely prolonged.
It also never shined as brightly as the two teams playing in the Western Conference Finals did last night.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs clashed in an epic double overtime Game 1 thriller. San Antonio won, and Victor Wembanyama was the best player on the floor by a significant margin over MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Nuggets fans might point to that performance and say Jokic could do it, and he has before. Now, we are seeing Wemby do it on the biggest stage in the first playoff run of his NBA career.
It was high level, high effort basketball throughout the night. There was a relentlessness about the matchup from both teams, who both sought out each other’s weaknesses like heatseeking missiles. They battled, and a great team won. The series isn’t over though. It’s likely just getting started.
It’s also a series that Denver just can’t match up with right now. The level both teams reached last night was the highest I’ve seen in a long time. While Nuggets-Thunder was a great series last year, it was the Nuggets dragging the Thunder down a rung on the ladder of where they usually are. This matchup last night was two elite teams throwing haymakers at each other until one team finally blinked.
If these playoffs are any indication, Denver’s not close to that level right now. A healthy Aaron Gordon and/or Peyton Watson might even the playing field a bit, but it certainly wouldn’t tip these matchups clearly in Denver’s favor. The Spurs showed quite clearly that they are better than the Minnesota Timberwolves, who showed quite clearly their respect for the Nuggets in the first round: none, zip, zilch, nada.
Denver’s now in the uncomfortable position of staring up at the rest of the Western Conference playoff field. The last two years, they were justifiably looking at the Thunder and Timberwolves as on their level, but the Nuggets have struggled to meet that level in the playoffs consistently, while other teams are having little trouble doing what Denver can’t.
So, what’s next then? Do the Nuggets accept their fate as a good-not-great team going forward? Do they convince themselves that a healthy run gets them closer to those elite teams than I’m currently giving them credit for? Or do they make changes to their structure to try and improve the team’s playoff outlook going forward?
Conversations will be had about all options, including the possibility of breaking up a championship winning core. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon have been on the roster together for the last six playoff runs. Murray missed the first two runs due to an ACL tear, while Gordon suffered through injuries to his lower body in the last two. In the middle were Denver’s two best opportunities, and they won a title in one of those years. Are they willing to wait it out for another opportunity with that group? Or, did we just see the last of Jokic, Murray, and Gordon on the floor together?
A financial excuse hangs over all of this with the Nuggets demonstrating a level of discomfort in paying the tax for a team that isn’t going deep in the playoffs. They already ducked the tax this season, and there’s no reason to expect any different from this ownership group next season. The easiest way to clear up salary? Trade your second or third highest paid players (Murray, Gordon) along with whatever else it takes to get cheaper.
The financial part of the equation matters when it comes to decision making, as frustrating as that may be for Nuggets fans to hear. There are competitive reasons to make a change, but the actual reasons are just as likely to be cost-cutting maneuvers.
The Thunder and Spurs will both rack up high salary cap numbers in the near future, but they have time to pay those. So, technically, do the Nuggets. At least, that’s how they should think about it with the best player of the last half decade on their roster.
But between age related decline, flawed roster building, player and coaching failures, and cost-cutting moves, it looks like the Thunder and Spurs are well on their way to lapping the Nuggets in the league’s pecking order.
We will see if the Nuggets actually have anything to say about that.
