We knew going into the busiest week of the season that the Avalanche likely weren’t going to be as active as a year ago. And understandably so. Not only did Colorado begin its offseason with nine forwards, all of its top four defensemen, and both goaltenders already under contract, but it also faces a salary cap crunch like no other. The uncertainty of Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin made it harder for general manager Chris MacFarland to maneuver.
I have several thoughts on the state of the Avs heading into 2024-25 so I’ll release them sporadically.
Here’s the first part of the series:
1: Casey Mittelstadt’s contract extension (3 years, $5.75 million/per year) is about as ideal as it gets for the Avalanche. While the young center has elevated the 2C to a level the team hasn’t had since Nazem Kadri, it also wasn’t quite the time to commit to Mittelstadt long-term. Colorado needed to get younger on the second line. Rather than rolling the dice on another veteran well past his prime like Ryan Johansen, it made more sense for the Avs to add a center who hasn’t yet reached his full potential. Is Mittelstadt sticking around for longer than just three years? Maybe. He was great in the postseason if you ask me. But the team has three years to decide if he’s the guy or if another change is needed.
All in all, there was no need to hitch your wagon to Mittelstadt for more than a half-decade. Let the next three years play out first.
2: Speaking of Mittelstadt, I genuinely believe the Ross Colton trade rumors were a result of what had developed between June 2023 and June 2024. When Colton signed for four years, it was with the understanding that he could play his way into the top six within two years. Ultimately, Johansen not working out led to the Mittelstadt acquisition. And the Avs’ new 2C stabilized the top six in a big way.
As for Colton, he’s now making $4 million and is locked in as the 3C on this roster. Is that a luxury Colorado could afford? Probably not. It made sense for him to make that much if it meant eventually working up the lineup. But I don’t see a scenario where Colton develops into a player better than Mittelstadt. So, unfortunately, I think the team realized they can’t have $4 million tied up to a third liner on a team with a cap crunch like this. It’s anybody’s guess where it goes from here, but I believe that Colton won’t play out his four years in Denver. How the team sees him changed drastically over the past 12 months and it makes all the sense in the world to bring in a cheaper center that could play a stronger two-way game.
3: The Avs lost a lot of character and veteran presence with the departures of Andrew Cogliano, Zach Parise, and Jack Johnson. The guys leading this team aren’t as young as they once were so it was only a matter of time before they led the way as the veterans. But either way, it’s still unfortunate to lose all three of those guys at once. I wonder if the team could explore the market for a veteran fourth-line center. That seems to be the one remaining missing piece to build out this roster.
I’ll admit, I chuckled at how many Avs fans tweeted me that Jack Johnson will be back at the 2025 trade deadline. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me, but still funny that all our minds went there at the same time.
4: I’m a big fan of all three UFA signings the team made. Many were unhappy to see other teams load up while the Avs only added depth pieces. But again, the Avs’ top players are already locked up. They weren’t in the market for those types of players.
Parker Kelly, while a lesser-known name, is only 25 and the type of forward that could thrive in the Avs’ system. It’s no secret Colorado needs more penalty killers. They’ll get that with Kelly. He’s under contract for two years at just $825,000 against the cap and will slot in nicely as a fourth-line winger. Calvin de Haan is a younger — albeit still an older veteran — version of Johnson. He also logs heavy PK minutes and should fit in nicely as the third-pair left-shot defenseman, replacing Johnson. And Erik Brannstrom, a natural righty who can also play on the left side, is perhaps the biggest wildcard of them all. On one hand, many felt this signing could get in the way of Sam Malinski’s spot in the top six. But on the other hand, Brannstrom is around the same age as Malinski and this should inspire healthy competition and provide depth on the blueline.
What I like most about Brannstrom is the ceiling he still could have in the NHL. His development hasn’t gone quite as planned but he still has a lot of the tools to be an effective top-four defenseman. The fact that he can play both sides is also ideal. In years past, Colorado always had Bowen Byram as a fifth option. Whenever there was an injury to the top four, Byram slotted in nicely. I don’t think the team plans to have de Haan play top-four minutes if say, for example, Samuel Girard missed a month. Brannstrom is the type of player that, if all goes well, could become that utility fifth option. We’ll see how he does with this team, but I have high hopes.
5: I love everything about the Jonathan Drouin signing. Would I have liked to see him locked up for multiple years? Sure. But I think this was a smart move on both sides. For the Avs, a bargain $2.5 million cap hit in a year where the team is low on cap space is great. And for Drouin, it wouldn’t have made sense to accept whatever long-term offer the Avs had on the table. Because of their cap crunch, it probably wasn’t much higher than a $2.5 million AAV.
Let the 2024-25 season play out. Once we know for certain if Landeskog or Nichushkin are long-term pieces of this roster, then MacFarland could revisit Drouin. For all we know, Drouin could end up being a far more crucial piece to this roster in a year than he is right now. If one of Landeskog or Nichushkin is gone by next summer, Drouin could seek a higher AAV and the team could afford it. But if they’re both healthy and playing? Then it’s Drouin’s decision, again, on if he wants to be a third-line piece on this team for a lower AAV, or a top-six player on another team, and paid accordingly.
