Strike 2: Think there was a lot of hand wringing over the selections and seedings done by the NCAA tournament committee this year?
Wait ‘till next year.
Will bigger conferences mean better draws for the bigger programs? Or could they end up cancelling each other out? Will the mid-majors get a better look next time around, or not?
This time around, the Mountain West, which was among the best leagues in the country this year, saw its collective accomplishments – including an excellent out of conference record against some very good teams – largely dismissed by the committee, which more or less ignored the numbers and gave teams like Boise State, New Mexico and yes, Colorado State, very little respect in terms of seeding. Meanwhile, numerous “Power Five” programs like Michigan State for instance, with its historically great pedigree – were given much more credit than they had actually earned on the court.
The committee’s reason for downgrading the MW was that the conference teams quality wins “all came against each other.” Besides being blatantly false, that thought process says something about what may lie ahead. What happens when the bigger schools are only able to schedule in-conference games and get all their best wins against each other? What will the committee say then?
Next March we’ll have a “Power Four” instead of a Power Five. Will those four conferences get the big majority of the bids? Or will teams like Texas, Oregon and yes, Colorado, playing in larger, deeper conferences with more conference games see their chances of getting into the tournament diminish if they go .500?
The expanded Big 12 will be a meat grinder, with the addition of the likes of Arizona to what is already the best men’s basketball conference in the country. How will the Buffaloes fare against not only those Wildcats – who’ve largely had their way with CU – but now Kansas, Houston, BYU, Iowa State and the like? If CU finishes in the middle of the pack in the expanded Big 12 – which will be no small accomplishment – will the committee reward them or downgrade them?
The Mountain West appears, for the moment at least, to be unchanged by the latest realignment saga. Oregon State and Washington State will play an MW slate in football, but not basketball. Does that mean that the six-bid MW has a better or worse chance of duplicating or even improving on their status next Selection Sunday?
Most importantly, will these expanded basketball conferences even have room on future schedules for teams like CSU? The Buffs and the Rams aren’t slated to tip off next year as of yet. It’s anyone’s guess if another Rocky Mountain hoops showdown will happen or not. Could be the Buffs don’t have the scheduling space.
The whole “Super League” movement is all about football of course, but it will have big ramifications next March as well. If the bloated 18-team Big 10 was a thing this season, the league would have gotten seven bids, including Pac-12 tourney champ Oregon, into the field. Seems like only having seven out of 18 would be thin. You have to believe that the selection committee will want more representation for the Bloated 10 than that come next March. And those extra bids are likely to come at the expense of mid-majors.
Not many who follow the sport want to see the 68-team field expanded. The drama of Selection Sunday is part of the fun. But if the selection process starts to exclude programs that aren’t part of the big four conferences, much of the fun will go the way of longstanding, geographical rivalries.
