The Denver Broncos have the biggest problem in sports. It’s a problem that is rarely solved overnight, unless of course it is the night before the NFL Draft or possibly the night before the trade deadline. The Broncos have the biggest problem in sports; they don’t have a franchise quarterback.
A “franchise quarterback” – at least one deserving of putting that title in quotation marks – must call protections, scout defenses, assess pre- and post-snap reads, and do all of this while having the ability to escape or stand in a surrounded pocket of big beastly men who have bad intentions. While all of that mayhem is approaching completion, a franchise quarterback now has to throw a ball with substantial velocity into a spot smaller than a bucket of chicken. And those are just his job responsibilities when the play clock is counting down and the play is in motion.
Yes, playing quarterback is a hard job. Though there are over 323 million people in the United States, finding 32 men to do this job, the job of franchise quarterback, is nearly impossible. The Broncos, as of right now, can’t find one.
On Wednesday it was announced that the Denver Broncos are moving forward with Brock Osweiler as their starting quarterback in an attempt to patch a problem and – best-case scenario – relive the magic that was Brock in 2015.
Who can forget those seven games (including a half against KC in Week 10 and a half against the Chargers in Week 17) that helped deliver a No. 1 seed in the AFC en route to a Super Bowl victory? His performance in an overtime victory against Tom Brady under the lights at a snowy Mile High on “Sunday Night Football” will forever be a fond memory for Broncos Country.
But while these sanguine recollections have excited some of the fan base, Brock in 2015 was very much similar to what the Broncos have seen from Siemian in 2017. Though the change might have quieted some of the rumblings, handing the job to Brock Osweiler might just be more of the same.
In seven games this year, Trevor Siemian has a completion percentage of 61.5 percent. Brock, through those magical seven games in 2015, completed passes at a 61.8 percent clip. Brock had 10 touchdowns compared to Trevor’s nine, and Brock averaged 7.2 yards per attempt compared to Trevor’s 6.8 this year. Very similar, and very pedestrian. Neither are the numbers of a true franchise quarterback.
A deeper dive into their numbers isn’t much more promising.
In 2016, when Brock started 14 games for Houston and Trevor started 14 games for Denver, their numbers stack up in a similar manner. Last year Brock connected on 59 percent of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. Trevor last season registered slightly better at 7.0 on 59.5 percent passing. When it came to finding the end zone, Trevor connected for 18 touchdowns but was intercepted 10 times. Brock posted a forgettable 15-to-16 TD-INT ratio that was the real cause of his undoing in Houston.
Trevor Siemian is a lot of things: A fantastic story, a smart quarterback who beat out high draft picks and veteran free agents to win the job, but he is not a franchise quarterback.
Franchise quarterbacks are often allowed some mistakes. You take the good with the bad, they say, because at the end of the day you know they have what it takes to take the ball and win the game – even without much help around them. Guys like Brett Favre and John Elway come to mind when you hear the term “franchise quarterback.” They might throw three interceptions by halftime, but in the end, you trust them to make that one incredible throw when they need to – a throw that splits the seams and allows the wide receiver or tight end to score that game-winning touchdown. They are never perfect, but they have that something about them that makes them special, something that allows coaches and managers to buy in, something that makes them the guy.
Throwing two touchdowns against six interceptions over three consecutive losses was Trevor’s undoing. Trevor isn’t afforded those mistakes, Trevor is not that guy.
Trevor is not without his positives. He is a quarterback who proved he can learn a system quickly, and can understand concepts better than most. He is stable, or at least has the perception of stability. He is calculated, and checks down when needed. As is seen with his career 6.9 yards per attempt average, he is seldom the guy who throws the long ball or tries for the 50/50 pass on third-and-long. But Trevor, with his nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season, is getting benched because he is not doing Trevor-type things.
Trevor Siemian is now one of the many people in this country that have been benched at quarterback. Trevor lost his glimmer and his shine because he was making bad decisions. Trevor is not alone in doing this, and there will be many more benched quarterbacks – even in Denver – for many years to come. But a change was needed. A literal change to anyone but Trevor Siemian.
Brock Osweiler has a different look, and a different feel. What people may not realize is that even if the exterior looks different, he and Trevor both have the same engine. Brock, the tall man with a big arm, is more like a Trevor than like a John or a Brett. Brock checks down. He takes what the defense gives him. He often times opts to throw it away on third down rather than trying to fit it into a tight spot. And he’s prone to turning the ball over. If you were doing the math along the way, his lifetime TD-INT ratio is 26-22. Hardly the numbers of a franchise quarterback.
Brock is a change and possibly a spark, but if Broncos fans are looking for something different – if they are looking for that quote-unquote “franchise quarterback” – they are looking in the wrong direction.
The car might look bigger and roomier, but under the hood it’s the same performance.
Let’s just hope this new ride, though it might have the same top speed, makes for less bumps in the road.