There’s a balance between high levels of excitement and a willingness to pace themselves that the Denver Nuggets will be confronted with tonight.
Game 1 of 82 starts tonight against the Golden State Warriors, a team that shined on the NBA’s opening night against the Los Angeles Lakers and looks better than last year. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and somehow Jonathan Kuminga remain the same adversaries, but adding in Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, Buddy Hield, and others over the past eight months has helped the Warriors evolve, even as old as they are.
But for the Nuggets, it’s Game 1, an opportunity to set the tone for what’s hoped to be a significant season in franchise history.
Just look around the league at the media predictions and you’ll see that I’m not alone in establishing high expectations for the Nuggets heading into the 2025-26 season. Others have picked Denver to win a championship, and the excitement about the renovations the Nuggets have made to their roster and culture is palpable.
With Nikola Jokic, especially this version of Jokic that has a case for being the NBA’s best player every year for the last five seasons, expectations should always be a championship. After winning their first title in 2023, the Nuggets have fallen short each of the last two seasons due to a variety of circumstances: health, the loss of key role players, eroding patience, and simply not making the plays when they mattered.
The Nuggets in 2023 approached the year the right way with a level of understated confidence and belief. They knew how good they were because they put themselves in a position to be successful, and they ran with the opportunity. After two seasons of not quite doing so in 2024 and 2025, this year is an opportunity to get back on track.
From the outside looking in, the Nuggets have done what they’ve needed to do in their lead-up to the season. The front office made important changes, the coaching staff instilled the right principles, and the players arrives at training camp ready to put in the work. Fast forward to opening night, and the Nuggets look like a team that knows what they have to do and is willing to take the important steps to get there. No shortcuts along the path to an NBA title.
Jokic is the leader and best player in the world, but the only leadership can’t come from him. Accountability matters at all levels of the roster, and it’s why Jamal Murray stepping up this summer was so important. He set the example stateside of how the Nuggets have to approach this year. There’s no waiting until the middle of the year to get ready, because the team needs to be ready now. Murray understood that and took charge. I’m expecting the results to reflect the work he put in.
Aaron Gordon has always been an elite connector. Now without Michael Porter Jr., he might have to step up as a scorer more frequently. The Nuggets know that he has to stay healthy, but if he can, there are few “third options” in the NBA that are better than him, if any.
Cam Johnson and Christian Braun help turn Denver’s starting unit from great to possibly the best in the NBA. Johnson’s versatility will be an asset throughout the year, and his basketball IQ will allow the Nuggets to do more than they’ve ever done before offensively. Braun just got paid, and now he can focus exclusively on being the best version of himself that he can be. Those two will be the swing factors from night to night. If both play well, the Nuggets are cooking. If one plays well, they will probably win. If neither plays well, it gets more dicey night to night.
Because while the bench is improved from the 2024-25 season, it’s still not an “amazing” bench. There are contributors across the board, but there’s no true “Sixth Man” candidate. The minutes and roles will fluctuate from night to night, and expecting too much from any of Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, or Jonas Valanciunas on a nightly basis is a recipe for failure.
But it’s still a clear upgrade. The Nuggets might be able to rest Nikola Jokic every now and then. 52 of Jokic’s 70 games last season featured him playing at least 35 minutes, by far the most among centers. Bam Adebayo and Domantas Sabonis were next on the list at 40. It’s a clear indication of how essential Jokic was, how much responsibility he shouldered night to night, and how poorly things went if Jokic wasn’t able to carry the entire burden.
The Nuggets had 21 games in which Jokic had a neutral or negative plus-minus and had a record of 5-16 in those games.
In the 20 Nuggets games Jokic had a plus minus from +1 to +9, the Nuggets had a 12-8 record.
Denver’s record in the 29 games Jokic had a plus-minus of +10 or greater? 29-0.
The Nuggets were also 4-8 in the games Jokic didn’t play.
Quite simply, the Nuggets starters are great enough that for about 35% of their games, it doesn’t matter what the bench does. About 25% of the time, the Nuggets starters will be below par, the Nuggets have been mostly dead in the water then because the bench didn’t often “flip” games.
It’s the other 40% that matters most in the regular season. It’s the games when Jokic and the starters are really good, but they haven’t separated to the point they can give the bench an extensive “cushion.” Can the Nuggets win those games anyway? They were solid last year, but they can be even better. Denver feels like they have a bench that can give Denver a better chance from night to night, helping to survive injuries, major fatigue, and specific matchups.
However the Nuggets can reduce “pressure” throughout the year is a good thing. Save all that pressure for the playoffs. We know the Nuggets can amp it up when it matters…if they have the juice to do so. That means getting off to a great start, winning games early in the season, winning games early within the game itself (not letting it even get to a fourth quarter) and reducing those high leverage minutes as much as possible. Avoid the slog that is the middle of the Western Conference playoff picture by rising above it early.
If the Nuggets lose to the Warriors tonight, is it the end of the world? Of course not. It’s a long, long season, and there’s plenty of games. Dropping the very first one won’t change the season.
But going 5-5 in the first 10? 10-10 in the first 20? 20-18 in the first 38? That’s a recipe for disaster. It means something went wrong, the plan didn’t really work, and the team will be forced to push the boulder up the hill the entire rest of the way. I will go as far as to say that the Nuggets will not win a championship this year if they are within seven games of .500 by the middle of the season (24-17 record). That would be pacing for 48 wins or worse, which simply won’t get it done in the West this season.
This past year, the Nuggets were 36-19 heading into the All-Star break, on pace for between 53 and 54 wins. We all know how a bad post All-Star stretch turned out. More will go into Denver’s season and their playoff viability than just a win-loss record, but winning is part of the process for champions. Teams have to learn how to win in a variety of ways. Can the Nuggets do that this year? We will see.
I’m looking forward to seeing how the Nuggets handle that pressure, that level of expectation. They may not feel such pressure internally, but they probably should. Denver’s officially taking their seasons one at a time. Next year isn’t promised for anybody. That’s what happens when the Nuggets are up against the clock. Jokic’s prime, the second apron, and a simple commitment to the plan from everyone involved are going to be checked annually. If Denver doesn’t make progress, changes will be made. It’s that simple.
While this season should be a fun one, it’s all trending toward the ultimate goal. Will the Nuggets put themselves in the best position to win a championship that they can?
We will see.
