Following a loss to the Detroit Lions, a potentially fatal blow to the Denver Broncos playoff hopes, there are really just two ways the Broncos season can end.
They can make a run, sweeping the remaining opponents on the schedule, and hope that the postseason math works out in their favor.
Or, they can lose one or more of their final three games, all of which should have the Broncos as the favorite, and ponder what’s next.
If the first scenario plays out – the Broncos make the postseason for the first time in eight seasons and possibly even win a playoff game – it will be difficult for anyone involved to be too unhappy about the result. Regardless of how the Broncos win, or how ugly they win, the season will be viewed as one upon which to build. A step in the right direction. A foundation that can be improved. A project that’s worthy of future tinkering.
Should they miss out, however, there will be more questions than answers. And the most glaring question will be whether or not the Broncos can win with Russell Wilson.
Perhaps a more important question is this: Does Sean Payton believe he can win with Wilson?
After losing two of their last three games, one thing has become readily apparent – Payton is anything but enamored with Wilson or any of the progress (real or perceived) that he’s made this season. At every possible turn, Payton has opted for tactics that range from subtle digs to an outright chucking of Wilson under the bus.
Against the Texans, Payton referred to the Broncos final and fatal play as “chaos,” insinuating that Wilson didn’t have command of the play call, the huddle or anything else that happened once the ball was snapped. Fair or not, and with no responsibility taken for some peculiar clock management in the game’s waning moments, Payton offered no support or defense of his quarterback – the same one, to be fair, who drove the Broncos to the Houston 8-yard line with 4:36 to play.
The next week, Wilson’s workmanlike 21-of-33 for 224 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a lopsided win over the Chargers flew mostly below the radar.
In last week’s loss against the Lions, however, the blame game again reared its ugly head. In what most likely would have been a meaningless touchdown anyway, the Broncos appeared to score on three separate occasions, but because of the official’s spot, a lack of a Broncos challenge or a penalty, the Broncos failed to get into the endzone. In and of itself, the failure to score wasn’t that meaningful, but what happened on the sideline afterwards might have said everything Broncos Country needed to know, as Payton undressed his quarterback for the entire world to see. Later, he dismissed the incident as simply being upset with the officials, but the damage had already been done, and few were buying what the coach was selling. It didn’t help when Payton became cranky with any and all questions surrounding his encounter with Wilson in the days that followed, going as far as offering a curt answer of “it’s none of your business.” It helped even less when Colin Cowherd, Payton’s former broadcasting colleague at Fox Sports, went public with his thoughts surrounding the relationship between Payton and Wilson. Cowherd hammered home the point, and lit a match to a firestorm of speculation and discussion that would soon follow in Denver, when he suggested that Payton’s preference would be to part ways.
“I think if you ask Sean Payton – and he now has the power in the building; he’s helped fix the defense; he’s got Russell being as good as he can possibly be – I think he would move off him and take a huge cap hit for a year,” said Cowherd, a significant voice considering his relationship with the coach.
Of course, that’s all in the past. The three games that lie ahead will play a bigger role in what the Broncos opening day roster in 2024 looks like.
Payton isn’t going anywhere.
But would he really want to move on from Wilson, dealing with the unknown of a rookie quarterback, the mediocrity of what might be available in free agency or the roster-crippling cap hit the Broncos would suffer by saying goodbye to Wilson?
If the answer is yes, then what incentive does Payton have to win out? Wilson has every motivation in the world, but earning a spot in the playoffs only makes the coach’s next step that much more complicated.
Nobody can fairly suggest that Payton would “tank” in any of the games ahead just to more justifiably dispose of Wilson. If he wanted to do that, he certainly could have thrown in the towel when the Broncos sat at 1-5 back in October. But if what Cowherd suggests is true – that Payton would just as soon move on from his aging quarterback – convincing ownership to move on from Wilson and his hefty contract becomes infinitely trickier if the Broncos are a playoff team. Whether Payton would say it, or do it, isn’t the point, but a sabotage of what’s left of the Broncos chances might suit his interests best.
After all, if the Broncos make the playoffs, a fanbase that’s all but lost its patience with the Broncos will buy into the notion that with a few improved parts and pieces, the Broncos could be even better next season. That’s an easy sell.
But if there’s one thing anyone who follows the Broncos has learned this season, it’s that their coach isn’t too keen on taking the blame. The fault, as he’ll likely tell anyone who cares to ask or listen, lies elsewhere. So, if the Broncos win out, make the playoffs, cut Wilson and start over at the sport’s most important position, any regression and blame that accompanies it will land squarely on Payton’s shoulders. On the flip side, if the Broncos fizzle – let’s say they go 2-1 or 1-2 – it becomes pretty easy for the coach to blame his quarterback. In turn, it’s easier for fans and even ownership to concur; at that point, Wilson isn’t the guy to get the Broncos where they need to go.
Any oddsmaker in Las Vegas would agree – today, anyway – that the Broncos should be the favorite to win each of their next three games. If a playoff berth is on the line, even if the Payton-Wilson led Broncos don’t control their own destiny, they should win all of them.
But if the Broncos stumble, the stage will be set for something considerably more drastic. Perhaps that’s what the coach wants anyway.
