As Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports first reported on Tuesday, Denver Nuggets’ forward Paul Millsap will undergo surgery on his left wrist and will be out indefinitely. Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN later gave an update on the timeframe of the injury.
Denver Nuggets forward Paul Millsap's surgery will be to repair a torn ligament in his left wrist and could sideline him for three months, league sources tell ESPN.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) November 21, 2017
The injury occurred Sunday night against the Los Angeles Lakers and it was not thought to be serious at first, but Millsap eventually appeared bothered by his wrist. He remained in the game for a moment before eventually heading back to the sideline and then into the locker room for further analysis.
Millsap has been an ironman in the league. He has been as durable a player as they come being that he has played in 853 of the potential 984 games over his 12-year career. That means Millsap has played in 86.6 percent of all possible games, and that does not include the postseason. He’s played in 64 or more games each year that he has been in the league and is now potentially set to miss around half of the season. While additional evaluation and consultations are ongoing to determine the best course of action regarding Millsap’s medical care, here are three things to look at.
How Denver’s defense is impacted
The Millsap injury is a devastating blow for the Nuggets as Millsap and Nikola Jokic were just getting into a groove — both offensively and defensively. They seemed to be just getting over the cohesion stage, which was apparent in the first few games and were starting to feed off of each other. Now an early injury to Millsap is threatening to derail their progress.
The loss of Millsap will be felt the most on the defensive end of the court. He’s an all-defensive team player that has been great throughout his career. Through 16 games Millsap has brought a defensive identity to a Nuggets’ team that was desperately lacking in that area. The entire team — including Jokic — has played more aggressive defensively knowing that they can switch pick and rolls for a split second, handle mismatches, and gamble in the passing lanes knowing that, in the second line of defense, there is a player of Millsap’s caliber backing them up.
While Jokic has changed the identity of the Nuggets offense, Millsap has been the reason for a defensive change and, with him not playing, expect change on that end of the floor. Right now, the Denver defense is 17th in defensive rating opposed to last season, when they were 29th in the league. Expect regression defensively towards what the Nuggets’ defensive numbers were last year with Millsap out with his wrist injury for a couple months. How much regression is an entirely different question.
Who fills in as the starting power forward?
Denver has a 108 offensive rating — good for fifth in the league — and that number could rise with Kenneth Faried slated to go to the starting lineup. The pairing of Jokic and Faried was one of the best duos in the league last year and has been consistently one of the better frontcourt combinations over the past few seasons. They show chemistry and Faried’s athleticism when finishing around the basket not only compliments Jokic’ game, but provides backdoor offensive rebounding opportunities and space for Gary Harris and Wilson Chandler at the rim.
In Denver’s’ most recent game without Millsap, it was Lyles and Hernangomez who picked up extended minutes, but Chandler was also out due to a sore lower back. Lyles says he’s ready for an expanded role and could see more playing time with the bench unit. He plays a much more perimeter-oriented role and, because of that skill set, Lyles has the ability to fit into any rotation.
Hernangomez is a crowd favorite and do-it-all type of player who has the ability to provide spacing. He can knock down three-pointers at a high rate and can finish plays at the rim well for his age. He’s a bit undersized for the power forward role and will most likely play more minutes as a backup small forward but he can definitely play power forward when needed.
Then there’s Chandler. Moving Chandler down to the power forward position to offset Faried minutes will provide spacing as he’s shown the ability to knock down the three-pointer. That spacing would allow him to play minutes with the starters and also the second unit and can push Barton over to play more small forward. This unit will have Denver playing similar how they finished last season on offense.
The Nuggets’ offense would be their defense in that situation. Expect to see lots of small-ball lineups of Jamal Murray, Harris, Barton, Chandler and Jokic to get the Nuggets out on the open floor and attacking in transition often.
Watching the bottom of Western Conference
There’s no opportune time for an injury to occur but there is hope for the Nuggets if you take a look at the other teams at the bottom of the Western Conference. Denver is 10-7 and currently sits at sixth place in the Western Conference with the New Orleans Pelicans, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers all a few games within reach if they can string along a good stretch of games.
The good thing is, besides the Thunder — who just seem to be trying to get it together with having Carmelo Anthony, Paul George and Russell Westbrook all on the court at the same time — many of the teams in the bottom half of the Western Conference are dealing with many issues of their own.
Mike Conley of the Grizzlies is out indefinitely. Rudy Gobert of the Jazz is going through a bruised knee. Patrick Beverley is out for the season due to knee issues and Danilo Gallinari has had issues of his own for the Clippers, who have been experimenting with different lineups due to their injuries. The Suns and the Lakers are still a year — or two — away from making noise in the Western Conference. That leaves the Pelicans as a team that could benefit if the Nuggets struggle without Millsap.
Millsap’s injury could be a cause for an all-out effort until he returns. Denver has the chance to use their offense as their biggest weapon to assert themselves amongst playoff hopeful teams — even without Millsap. If the Nuggets can pull that off it would be huge in their pursuit of a playoff spot.