The Denver Nuggets are in a difficult place right now. They’re 10-8 and have the ability to turn things around, but the act of doing so would require more effort and better execution than the Nuggets have been willing to put in so far.

The Golden State Warriors are a prime example of what effort and desire can do for a short period of time. The Warriors are 12-7 and have won some impressive games so far, but the team is currently riding a four-game losing streak, primarily against strong competition that expects the Warriors to be tough. Golden State isn’t catching teams by surprise right now, so naturally, Denver will lose to first quarter tonight, as they are wont to do.

Let’s delve into the Golden State Warriors matchup:

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic

Golden State: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Trayce Jackson-Davis

Key Bench Players

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Aaron Gordon, maybe possibly somebody else

Golden State: Buddy Hield, Jonathan Kuminga, Lindy Waters III, Kyle Anderson, Kevon Looney, Moses Moody, Pat Spencer, Steve Kerr, my 60-year-old mother

Notable Injuries

Denver: Aaron Gordon – PROBABLE, Peyton Watson – PROBABLE, Trey Alexander – OUT, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Golden State: Stephen Curry – PROBABLE, Draymond Green – QUESTIONABLE, De’Anthony Melton – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – Wrapping up the NBA Cup

Tonight is the final day of the NBA Cup pool games that determine seeding. Some teams have been eliminated from contention. The Denver Nuggets, despite going 1-2 in their first three matchups, are still technically in the race.

They need some serious help though.

I do coverage of the NBA professionally and I’m not sure I’m qualified to sift through all of that. Suffice to say: the Nuggets need to win, they need other competitors for that final spot to lose, and they need the point differential to work out in their favor.

Fortunately for Denver, the Warriors are already 3-0 in this tournament and have qualified for the final dance already. They don’t need to worry about seedings. They’re in already. This is just a regular ol’ game for them, and maybe there will be slightly less motivation to get this game with those qualifications in mind.

We will soon find out.

Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Stephen Curry

It’s clear that Curry is showing the first real signs of age this season. He’s down to “just” 22.5 points per game this season on “only” 43.5% from three-point range.

In all, Curry remains a monster despite playing over 1,100 regular season and playoff games through an illustrious career. He is taking fewer shots though, averaging 16.0 shots per game. It’s his fewest since the 2011-12 season, and it’s mostly by design in Steve Kerr’s heavy ball movement and player movement system with Curry as the apex predator.

He matches up with Jamal Murray, who has been anything but apex this season. Murray’s averaging 18.1 points per game on 15.3 shots per game. There’s an obvious efficiency gap here, but the volume of shots that Curry consistently gets up with relentless off-ball movement and the quickest trigger in the league stands out in stark contrast to Murray’s methodical pace.

We will see if Murray gets up for this matchup.

Number of the Day – 119.5

That’s Denver defensive rating in the first half of games this year, ranking 29th in the entire NBA. It’s worse than all but the Chicago Bulls, who have been starting Zach LaVine at power forward for multiple games this season.

It’s an inexcusable flaw for a team that has championship aspirations. It’s also made all the more meaningful by Denver’s response in the second half. The Nuggets have the fifth best defensive rating in the second half of games this season. That’s better than all but the Orlando Magic (elite perimeter defense), Houston Rockets (high level athletes), Oklahoma City Thunder (generational perimeter defense), and Minnesota Timberwolves (Rudy Gobert + elite perimeter defense).

All the Nuggets have to do to be like those teams is try…apparently.

Nugget who should have a good game: Michael Porter Jr.

MPJ usually bounces back pretty well in these moments. He’s a player the Warriors don’t really have the personnel to slow down. If he gets going from three-point range, it should open up his entire game tonight. He’s a sneaky candidate for 30 points, something neither he nor Murray have accomplished the entire season.