It all comes down to Game 82.

Let’s delve into the final game of the season vs the Houston Rockets:

Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Houston: Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun

Key Bench Players

Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, DeAndre Jordan

Houston: Aaron Holiday, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith, Steven Adams

Notable Injuries

Denver: Jamal Murray – PROBABLE, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Houston: Jae’Sean Tate – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – Just Win Baby

Last game against the Memphis Grizzlies was a weird one. Denver made five threes. Aaron Gordon led all scorers with 33 points. Jamal Murray was working his way back, and the Nuggets trying to not rely too heavily on Nikola Jokic…until they had to. Denver found a way to win anyway. That’s what the playoffs are like, winning no matter the situation and no matter what the other team throws your way to change up the flow of a normal game.

Today, the Rockets are going to play their starters for however long Ime Udoka sees fit. Nobody is on the injury report for the Rockets, and it looks like Houston will use this as an opportunity for a tuneup against another playoff caliber opponent. Whoever the Rockers play though, the Nuggets have to play their game, responding well to the game plan whether it’s Jalen Green, Reed Shepphard, Jeff Green, or Jeenathan Williams out there.

Can Denver get a win to ensure homecourt advantage in the first round? Is that even the right call due to all of the playoff scenarios? It’s probably easiest just to win and figure things out later.

Important Matchup – Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. vs Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks

In two games against the Rockets so far this season, Jamal Murray has averaged 30.5 points and 6.0 assists while shooting 54.8% from the field and 72.7% from three. You read that correctly. The Rockets should be a team Murray struggles with due to their athleticism and perimeter defensive talent, especially from someone as notable as Thompson defensively. Still, he’s found success, and if the Nuggets are going to win again, he’s going to have to be good.

Michael Porter Jr. is a different story, averaging 12.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game while shooting 45.0% from the field and 20.0% from three. He’s been shooting worse post All-Star break (34.0% from three) and the offense has struggled lately to generate open looks for him. Porter is averaging the same number of wide open three-point attempts per game (1.8 attempts, 37.2%) as he is contested threes per game (1.8 attempts, 22.7%). By comparison, the Golden State Warriors are generating 3.0 wide open threes per game for Stephen Curry, the most dangerous perimeter scorer of all-time. If they can scheme some looks for him, the Nuggets can do the same for Porter.

Number of the Day – 4

That’s the total number of places in the standings the Nuggets could fall in after today’s results. Four different spots. Currently, the Nuggets are the fourth seed in the West, tied with the Los Angeles Clippers at 49 wins.

A win today would guarantee 50 wins and the fourth seed in the playoffs. Despite all that’s happened, it’s a pretty good outcome for Denver overall if they’re still able to get to 50 wins. A good season, just not a great one.

If the Nuggets lose, things get dicey. If they lose and everyone else loses around them that needs to, they could still be the fourth seed. That’s extremely unlikely though. Denver losing most likely means they fall to the sixth or seventh seed, depending on how the game goes between the Clippers and Golden State Warriors. If the Clippers win, Denver would probably be the sixth seed. If the Warriors win, Denver would lose a four-way tie to Minnesota, Golden State, and the LA Clippers, falling directly into the Play-In.

Nugget who should have a good game: Nikola Jokic

Jokic appears to have woken up a bit after the big firings this week. he will take this game seriously and do what it takes to get a win. Here’s hoping enough Nuggets join him to take advantage of a Houston squad that’s talented but doesn’t have a lot to play for outside of staying fresh. Jokic will be there though, I have little doubt.