The Denver Broncos sit pretty in the NFL playoff picture 12 weeks into the season.

But, coming out of their bye week, some things changed.

Let’s examine where the Broncos currently are, their odds to make the postseason, and how that compares to other AFC teams

Where the Denver Broncos sit in NFL playoff picture

The Broncos are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

When they went into the bye week, they were No. 1, but because the New England Patriots held off the Cincinnati Bengals, they are now the new No. 1 at 10-2.

And while Denver was hoping New England would fall, there was some good news in terms of seeding. The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Indianapolis Colts 23-20 in overtime, which dropped Indy to third place overall at 8-3. A win from the Colts would’ve put them at No. 2, and Denver at No. 3.

Speaking of the Chiefs; Denver defeated them 22-19 last week, and Kansas City was at 5-5. And despite their win over the Colts, the Chiefs actually dropped a spot to No. 10 in the AFC. Remember, seven teams get into the playoffs per conference now, with the No. 1 seed getting a first round bye.

AFC Playoff Picture Heading into Week 13

Let’s examine the entire American Football Conference’s standings as well as each team’s chances of making it into the postseason. The percentage is how likely they are to make the playoffs per the NFL.

  1. New England, 10-2, 99%
  2. Denver Broncos, 9-2, 97%
  3. Indianapolis Colts, 8-3, 86%
  4. Baltimore Ravens, 6-4, 80%
  5. LA Chargers, 7-4, 56%
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars, 7-4, 70%
  7. Buffalo Bills, 7-4, 85%
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers, 6-5, 28%
  9. Houston Texans, 6-5, 45%
  10. Kansas City Chiefs, 6-5, 54%
  11. Miami Dolphins, 4-7, <1%
  12. Cincinnati Bengals, 3-8, <1%
  13. Cleveland Browns, 3-8, <1%
  14. Las Vegas Raiders, 2-9, <1%
  15. New York Jets, 2-9, <1%

So, a few things stick out in that list. There are basically 10 teams fighting for those top 7 spots. The Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Raiders, and Jets have all be been eliminated.

Next, even though the Chiefs are down in 10th, they have a better chance of making the playoffs than both the Texans and Steelers.

However, that regular season win by Buffalo over K.C. gives the Bills a much-needed advantage over the Chiefs. The Jaguars also beat K.C. head to head. So, the Chiefs are going to have to beat the Chargers when the two teams play again, and finish with a better record to get in.

How do the Broncos win the AFC West?

The simplest way for Denver to win the AFC West is by winning out.

That’s easier said than done. They play the Commanders this week and the Raiders next week; both of those games should be layups for the Broncos.

Then they face the Packers in Green Bay, host the Jaguars, are at the Chiefs on Christmas Day, and host the Chargers to end the season.

If the Broncos win the next two and win the last two games that should be enough to win the AFC West. Even winning three of the next six games may be enough.

Currently, ESPN gives the Broncos a 76% chance of winning the AFC West. They also say Denver has the best chance in the AFC (18%) of making the Super Bowl.

ESPN also gives the Chiefs a slightly better chance (61-57%) of making the playoffs, while the Chargers have a slight edge (12-11%) of winning the division. Both LA and KC play nearly identical schedules to finish the year; Dallas, Houston, and Denver will each present tough tests, along with their remaining head-to-head matchup.

Kansas City plays at Dallas on Thanksgiving (2:30 p.m. MT) which will help shape who wins the west.