The Colorado Buffaloes hit the road searching their second win of the season away from Boulder, where they improved to 2-0 on the season last Saturday after obliterating visiting Weber State in a predictable, 52-21 blowout that head coach Deion Sanders lamented was too close afterwards. Young Buffaloes quarterback Julian Lewis looked much improved in that game, and with rain in the forecast on Saturday night in Evanston, Ind., Colorado’s newfound commitment to the running game under new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion might pay immediate dividends.

They draw a Northwestern Wildcats squad that arrives with plenty of momentum, after handling the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in a decisive, 34-18 win. Currently unranked in the AP Top 25, Northwestern is leaning on a efficient, high-scoring offense that churned out 497 total yards with zero turnovers in their last outing. The Wildcats have proved they can move the ball in chunks and control the tempo from the opening whistle.

In what look to be a coin-toss game, the Buffaloes have to find a way to slow down Northwestern’s red-zone execution and match their offensive firepower blow for blow. It’ll be another test for Colorado’s revamped defense led by defensive back Boo Carter and budding sackmaster Lamont Lester, Jr., and the offense needs to maximize its own scoring opportunities behind Lewis and the ground game in order to extend their promising start into a pleasantly surprising 3-0. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. MT at Ryan Field, with the game broadcast live on FOX.

The Breakdown

This game pits a high-scoring Northwestern offensive attack against a Colorado defense that has shown an early knack for generating pressure behind the line of scrimmage. Conventional wisdom suggests Big Ten teams want to establish the run and bleed the clock – a philosophy built on decades of Midwestern football tradition –  but Northwestern fields an efficient, dual-threat offense that will test the Buffaloes’ defensive front early and often. Colorado has to disrupt that rhythm. If they allow the Wildcats to dictate the tempo and stay ahead of the chains, the defense will wear down as the game progresses.

The Wildcats have leaned heavily on an efficient and diverse offense, averaging 34.0 points and a massive 497.0 total yards per game. Northwestern has shown impressive balance, compiling 273 passing yards and 224 rushing yards to keep opposing defenses guessing. Most notably, the Wildcats have been flawless when crossing the 20-yard line, boasting a perfect 100 percent red-zone efficiency with five conversions on five attempts. Paired with a clean sheet in the turnover department last week and a +1 overall turnover differential on the season, Northwestern has proven they can methodically march down the field without shooting themselves in the foot.

Colorado counters with a dynamic offense of its own, matching the pace by averaging 33.0 points and 442.5 total yards per game. Through their early-season action, the Buffaloes have leaned on an aerial attack that has produced 522 passing yards, while adding 363 yards on the ground to keep defenses honest. The offense has also been highly effective in extending drives, converting on 43.3 percent of their third-down attempts (13-for-30). Defensively, the Buffaloes have been disruptive in the backfield, logging 6.0 sacks on the season – a weapon they’ll need to utilize this afternoon to throw Northwestern’s offense off schedule.

The X-factor for Colorado will be maximizing scoring opportunities and finishing in the trenches. While Northwestern has been perfect in the red zone, the Buffaloes have converted on just 71.4 percent of their own red-zone trips (5-of-7). In college football, settling for field goals on the road is a fast track to a loss. If Colorado can finish drives with touchdowns, and use their pass rush to force Northwestern into uncomfortable third-and-long situations, they have the firepower to keep pace. With both teams sporting a +1 turnover differential on the season, the squad that protects the football and executes inside the 20-yard line walks away with the victory.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Colorado +145 / Northwestern -176
  • Spread: Northwestern -3.5 (-107) / Colorado +3.5 (-113)
  • Over/Under: 47.5 (Over -116 / Under -104)

Our Pick

The Over is the sharpest play today because both offenses have shown remarkable efficiency early in the season. Northwestern is methodically moving the chains, averaging 497.0 total yards and 34.0 points per game. More importantly, the Wildcats are converting every single red-zone trip into points with a flawless 100 percent red-zone efficiency rate. That level of execution is rare this early in the year, despite playing an FBS opponent. On the other side, Colorado is keeping pace with 33.0 points and 442.5 total yards per contest, boasting a quick-strike aerial attack that won’t be as effective in the wet weather at Northwestern as it was in sunny Boulder last week.

With two offensive units capable of executing long, sustained drives and trading punches, 47.5 points is too low a bar for teams averaging a combined 67 points per game… even with rain in the forecast. Colorado’s disruptive pass rush might generate a few negative plays, but neither defense is built to pitch a complete shutout against this caliber of opponent. BetMGM is showing the total line at 47.5, and backing these high-powered offenses provides the best value on the board. If you want to tail this play, use the BetMGM promo code to claim your offer before kickoff.

Pick: Over 47.5 (-116)

***

Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.