Trying to find positives in the Colorado Rockies’ recent stretch of games requires squinting. Over their last 20, The Rockies have dropped 15 contests, managing just a single victory in their previous five outings. They will try to halt that downward trajectory tonight in the desert, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. MT at Chase Field.

Arizona, conversely, is sitting above the .500 mark and have been rolling over the past week. After taking seven of their last ten matchups, including five straight victories, they are pulling themselves in a completely different direction than Colorado; executing situationally, stringing together quality at-bats, and finding reliable ways to close out tight games late.

For the Rockies to compete tonight, they have to find a way to quiet a Diamondbacks roster carrying a heavy amount of momentum. If Colorado can manufacture some early runs to apply pressure, and get a steady outing from Tomoyuki Sugano to limit the damage, they have a chance to steal a road win.

The Breakdown

The pitching matchup tonight features Colorado’s Tomoyuki Sugano squaring off against Arizona’s Michael Soroka. Sugano has been a relatively steady presence for the Rockies across his 47.0 innings of work this season, posting a 4.02 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He is not going to overpower hitters – registering a modest 4.79 strikeouts per nine innings – but he generally limits free passes with a 2.68 BB/9 rate and keeps the ball in the zone. On the other side, Soroka brings high-strikeout stuff to the mound. Through 49.0 innings this year, he has compiled a solid 3.49 ERA while striking out an impressive 10.10 batters per nine. However, Soroka can be vulnerable to traffic on the basepaths. His 1.32 WHIP and .266 opponent batting average suggest that when opposing teams do make contact, they’re finding holes.

The X-factor in this game comes down to whether the Rockies’ lineup can actually capitalize on those baserunners and turn them into runs. They’re scraping together just 3.60 runs per game with a sluggish .585 OPS during that same span. To stay competitive, Colorado has to find ways to generate consistent offense instead of striking out and stranding runners in scoring position.

Sugano must pitch to contact effectively and navigate through a hot Arizona lineup, especially in the opening frames. From there, the Rockies’ lineup has to put pressure on Soroka by taking advantage of the hits he allows and converting those opportunities into runs.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks -222 / Colorado Rockies +180
  • Run Line: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-105) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

Our Pick

It is hard to find a logical reason to back Colorado tonight. The Diamondbacks are playing a much better brand of baseball right now, riding a five-game winning streak and finding consistent offensive production at Chase Field.

Meanwhile, the Rockies are scuffling heavily at the plate and traditionally hit poorly on the road. Even if Tomoyuki Sugano manages to keep things close through the early innings by limiting hard contact, Colorado’s bullpen remains a major liability late in games, carrying a 4.39 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. On the flip side, Arizona’s lineup is hitting its stride and should eventually break through against the middle relievers. Furthermore, Michael Soroka’s high-strikeout stuff profiles perfectly to neutralize a Rockies offense that frequently swings through pitches out of the zone.

Rather than laying the heavy -222 on the moneyline, look to the run line to find actual betting value. BetMGM has the Diamondbacks at -1.5 with -105 odds, which is the most logical play, given the stark contrast in these two teams’ current trajectories.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-105)

Player Prop Pick

It’s that man again. First baseman TJ Rumfield’s surprising consistency makes him an ideal target for tonight’s prop market.

Over his last 10 games, Rumfield has put together a stellar .312 batting average and an .890 OPS. He’s barreling up the ball with regularity – averaging exactly one hit per game during this stretch – while mixing in a bit of extra-base power with two doubles and a home run. Tonight, against a strikeout artist in Michael Soroka, Rumfield’s disciplined approach at the plate means he will eventually get pitches to drive when Soroka is forced back into the strike zone.

Expect Rumfield to stay hot and find a gap for the offense tonight.

Pick: TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 Total Bases

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.