The Rockies have dropped eight of their last 10 games, but managed to salvage a split against the Washington Nationals to regain a small amount of pride. They move on to Atlanta to face a red-hot Braves squad that just finished sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers, capped by a complete-game shutout from Chris Sale. It was the kind of dominant rotation performance that allows a team to reset its bullpen, and Braves skipper (and former Rockies player and manager) Walt Weiss confidently let Sale finish the Dodgers off in the ninth. The Braves have now won four of their last five contests, and have clearly found a late-season rhythm as Colorado continues to fade into the background. First pitch set for 5:15 p.m. MT.

To even stay competitive this afternoon, Colorado has to figure out a way to manufacture early runs. Engaging in a low-scoring battle of attrition against a superior roster (and a fresh bullpen)  is a losing formula, so the Rockies need their bats to wake up immediately to carve out any realistic path to a road upset.

The Breakdown

Colorado sends Tomoyuki Sugano to the mound this afternoon, and he is currently fighting his way through a rough patch. Across his last 10 appearances, Sugano has developed a home run problem, surrendering 2.36 long balls per nine innings. Opponents tallying 10.80 hits per nine in that same window and ballooning his ERA to 6.08. He is catching way too much of the plate, and major-league hitters are making him pay.

Atlanta counters with Grant Holmes, who’s been excellent over his last 10 outings. Holmes is yielding just 1.70 runs per game during this stretch, maintaining a 2.86 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He avoids the big inning, and he limits the damage when traffic gets on the basepaths, making him a frustrating assignment for a Colorado lineup desperate to find an offensive spark.

Despite Atlanta’s recent surge in the win column, their bats have actually gone ice cold. Over their last 10 games, the Braves are averaging a miserable 2.60 runs per contest with a sluggish .638 OPS. Against all odds, Colorado’s offense has outpaced them in that identical 10-game window, pushing across 4.10 runs per game with a .705 OPS.

For the Rockies to pull off the road upset, Sugano must suppress the home run ball and navigate around the heart of the Braves’ order. If he can keep the bases clean and take advantage of an Atlanta lineup that is struggling to string hits together, Colorado has a chance. On the other side, the Rockies have to ambush Holmes early. Falling behind means facing a refreshed Atlanta bullpen carrying a formidable 3.43 ERA, and Colorado does not have the late-inning firepower to overcome a deficit once the opposing manager starts matching up arms.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Atlanta Braves (-225) / Colorado Rockies (+199)
  • Run Line: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-108) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-111)
  • Over/Under: 9 (Over -101 / Under -120)

Our Pick

Today’s matchup at Truist Park features two lineups that are struggling to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Yes, the Braves hold an imposing 79-55 record and just swept the Dodgers, but they are doing it with run prevention right now. Their bats have gone entirely quiet over the last two weeks. When you combine an Atlanta offense averaging under three runs a game with a reliable Braves bullpen sporting a 3.43 ERA, scoring opportunities are going to be scarce.

On the flip side, the Rockies (52-82) have failed to generate consistent road offense all season long. Even if Sugano serves up a couple of mistakes early, this current iteration of the Braves lineup does not look capable of an offensive explosion that would push this game past a high total. Finding value here means fading the bats and trusting the recent data. BetMGM has the total sitting at 9, with the under priced at -120. If you are a new user backing this angle and don’t mind laying some juice, grab a BetMGM promo code to get a sign-up bonus before locking it in.

Pick: Under 9 (-120)

Player Prop Pick

Connor Norby has been a notable exception to Colorado’s offensive woes right now. The rookie infielder, acquired from the Marlins in August, is hitting an impressive .353 over his last 10 games with a .647 slugging percentage and a 1.068 OPS. He recently blasted his first career grand slam against Washington and has reached base in every single game since joining the club. Manager Warren Schaeffer praised his disciplined approach this week, noting that Norby refuses to chase pitches out of the zone while combining walks with legitimate power. He carries a 12-game hitting streak into this afternoon.

While Holmes has been fantastic for Atlanta, he shows a slight platoon vulnerability. He allows a .415 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters, compared to .392 against lefties. Norby is averaging 0.4 doubles and 0.2 home runs per game during this hot stretch, making him a prime candidate to exploit that subtle edge. DraftKings is offering +182 odds on his total bases prop. Getting that kind of plus-money on the most locked-in hitter in the Rockies’ lineup is massive value. For more coverage and the latest Rockies news, check out our ongoing updates.

Pick: Connor Norby Over 1.5 Total Bases (+182)

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.