Every so often, the Colorado Rockies piece together a complete baseball game, much like they did in last night’s 5-2 victory over Chicago. They will try to capture that same magic for tonight’s 6:05 p.m. MT first pitch at Wrigley Field.

The host Cubs are hardly a juggernaut at the moment, splitting their last 10 games right down the middle and dropping 11 of their last 20 matchups. Getting held to just two runs on seven hits by Colorado in their last meeting will not help the anxiety brewing on the North Side.

To steal another road win tonight, Colorado has to replicate that clean, error-free defensive effort. The path to a victory relies heavily on keeping the Cubs’ bats cold early and jumping on scoring opportunities before Chicago’s late-inning relievers get involved.

The Breakdown

Tonight’s pitching matchup is a stark contrast in experience, featuring Chicago’s Javier Assad against Rockies prospect Sean Sullivan.

Assad has been remarkably efficient at keeping traffic off the basepaths, logging a 1.02 WHIP and limiting hitters to a .219 average over his last 10 appearances. But there is a glaring weakness in his game right now: he is failing to pitch deep into games. Over that same 10-game stretch, he is averaging just 5.4 innings per start. On the other side, the MLB sample size for Sullivan is practically nonexistent. The recent 2023 second-round draft pick threw exactly three scoreless innings in his lone recent outing, allowing zero walks. It was a highly promising debut, but asking a rookie to navigate a veteran lineup the second time through the order is a tall task.

The great equalizer tonight is a Rockies offense that has suddenly found a groove. Over their last 10 games, Colorado’s lineup is raking, plating 5.9 runs per contest while slugging 17 home runs and carrying an .862 OPS. That kind of sudden, heavy-handed production is the X-factor you need against a pitcher like Assad, who thrives on limiting baserunners. If Colorado can ambush him early and inflate his pitch count, they can force Chicago to hand the ball over to the bullpen ahead of schedule.

For the Rockies to walk away with a road victory, Sullivan has to give this team more length than a three-inning sprint. He needs to maintain the sharp control he flashed in his debut and actively bridge the gap to the middle innings. Meanwhile, the Rockies lineup has to stay aggressive, put crooked numbers on the board, and keep manufacturing the high-scoring run production that has kept them competitive over the last two weeks.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Cubs -189 / Rockies +155
  • Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+105) / Rockies +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 10 (Over -110 / Under -110)

Our Pick

As much as the heart wants to see the Rockies string together consecutive road wins, the math points in the opposite direction. Trusting Colorado away from Coors Field remains a notoriously bad investment. DraftKings is offering the Cubs on the run line at -1.5 (+105), which presents the best structural value on the board for tonight’s contest. If you are going to lay the juice on Chicago, be sure to utilize the DraftKings promo for new users.

The foundation of this pick comes down to what happens after the starting pitchers hit the showers. Neither starter is a safe bet to push past the fifth inning, which means this game will be decided by the relief corps. That spells disaster for Colorado. The Cubs trot out a highly reliable bullpen that’s carrying a 3.57 ERA. Conversely, the Rockies’ relievers continue to hemorrhage runs, lugging a 5.19 ERA to the mound this season. Even if Colorado’s hot lineup grabs an early lead, Chicago’s bats will inevitably get multiple chances to feast on a leaky Rockies bullpen late in the game.

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+105)

Player Prop Pick

We are zeroing in on Hunter Goodman to keep his bat hot against Cubs right-hander Javier Assad tonight.

Goodman has been swinging a big stick over his last 10 games, mashing four home runs, driving in eight, and sitting on a stellar .979 OPS. The matchup against Assad presents a massive edge for the Colorado slugger. In seven career at-bats against the righty, Goodman has logged three hits – including a home run and four RBIs – good for a 1.232 OPS. More importantly, Goodman consistently punishes right-handed pitching, carrying an .854 OPS and with 15 of his home runs coming against righties this season.

Caesars has his total bases line set at 1.5, with a highly appealing -103 payout on the over. When you stack his recent power surge, his historical success against Assad, and his season-long numbers against righties, backing Goodman to clear this number is the smartest angle on the board.

Pick: Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases

For more insights, analysis, and everything else surrounding the team, be sure to check out our Colorado Rockies coverage.

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.