The Matchup

The Colorado Rockies are navigating through their rebuild following the trade deadline, and they’ve dropped 13 of their last 20 games, but they did nab an 8-6 road win over the Cardinals yesterday behind leadoff hitter Jake McCarthy’s brilliant, 4-hit, 2-homer, 2-steal, 3-RBI performance on Saturday. They will try to piece together a modest winning streak when first pitch gets underway at 12:15 p.m. MT.

St. Louis has split its last 10 games right down the middle and, coincidentally, mirrors Colorado with the exact same 7-13 record over its last 20 contests. They managed to win three of five before giving up 11 hits to McCarthy and the Rockies last night, proving they are far from untouchable at home.

If the Rockies can keep the bats hot and the baserunners moving (they had 5 stolen bases on Saturday), limit the defensive mistakes, and make sure the pitching staff does enough to stay out of its own way, they can claim the win – and the series – this afternoon.

The Breakdown

Today’s pitching matchup features Michael Lorenzen taking the mound for Colorado against St. Louis right-hander Michael McGreevy. Let’s look at the latest trends. Over his last 10 starts, Lorenzen has struggled to pitch deep into games, averaging just 4.7 innings per outing. He is laboring early, putting too many men on base, and handing the ball over to the bullpen before the fifth inning is over. On the other side, McGreevy has been only slightly more reliable, averaging 5.4 innings per start over his last 10 appearances. The underlying issue for McGreevy is his vulnerability to left-handed power; he has surrendered 10 home runs to lefties this season compared to just six to righties.

The question today is whether the Rockies can sustain their recent offensive surge. For all the roster turnover, Colorado’s lineup – bolstered by Jake McCarthy’s recent string of multi-hit performances – has been highly productive over its last 10 games, putting up 5.7 runs and 9.9 hits per contest with a collective .791 OPS. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offense has gone cold over that same stretch, managing just 3.7 runs per game.

For the Rockies to pull this off, Lorenzen must work efficiently and extend his start past the fifth inning to protect a overtaxed relief corps. Offensively, Colorado needs to exploit McGreevy’s splits, get left-handed bats on base, and capitalize early. If Lorenzen limits the damage and the lineup maintains its current pace, a series win is on the table.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Cardinals -161 / Rockies +145
  • Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+122) / Rockies +1.5 (-146)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (Over +101 / Under -123)

Our Pick

The Rockies are hitting the ball well right now, but trusting their pitching staff to hold a lead is a bad investment. Colorado’s bullpen carries a bloated 4.95 ERA this season, meaning no late-inning advantage is safe once the starter heads to the dugout. The Cardinals’ relief corps hasn’t been bulletproof either, sitting on a 4.34 bullpen ERA of their own.

When you combine two vulnerable bullpens with a Colorado lineup that is consistently finding the gaps, the total is the smartest angle for this one. Rather than laying juice or trusting either side to play a clean nine innings, bank on the runs piling up in the middle and late frames. Caesars has the Over 9.5 listed at +101, offering solid plus-money value in a matchup where both staffs are prone to giving up crooked numbers. Be sure to look into the Caesars promo for new users before locking in your wager.

Pick: Over 9.5 (+101)

Player Prop Pick

Mickey Moniak just inked a two-year extension to stay in Colorado, and he’s swinging a hot bat right now, boasting a stellar .949 OPS with three home runs over his last 10 games.

More importantly, Moniak has had success against St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy. In his career against the Cardinals righty, Moniak is 4-for-6 with a home run. When you stack his recent hot streak, his head-to-head dominance, and McGreevy’s documented struggles against left-handed hitting (10 homers allowed to lefties this season), the edge here is obvious. DraftKings is offering +124 on Moniak to eclipse 1.5 total bases. That is excellent value for a left-handed hitter in peak form stepping into a highly favorable matchup. For more daily props and the latest Rockies news, check back throughout the week.

Pick: Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Total Bases (+124)

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.