The Colorado Rockies have definitely reached the dog days of August, managing only  a meager six victories over their last 20 contests. They flashed some offensive potential earlier in the week, but reverting to old habits cost them in a tight, 3-2 defeat to St. Louis yesterday. The Rockies are obviously focused on long-term development right now, but they still expect to compete to the end.

St. Louis enters this matchup sitting right on the .500 line. The Cardinals went through their own prolonged funk, dropping 13 of 20 before the deadline, but they are playing with renewed confidence right now. Even after trading away pieces to stock their farm system, the home side has won four of its last five. They leaned on an error-free defense and timely late hitting to edge Colorado out in the series opener.

For the Rockies to turn things around this afternoon, they need to capitalize on traffic. They recorded 10 hits in their last meeting but translated that into exactly two runs. Finding clutch hits is the only realistic path to matching a St. Louis squad that is suddenly finding ways to win. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 5:15 p.m. MT.

The Breakdown

The starting pitching matchup features Kyle Freeland taking the ball for Colorado against St. Louis left-hander Matthew Liberatore.

Freeland remains a steady presence in an otherwise turbulent rotation, even if his 3-10 record doesn’t inspire much confidence. Over his last 10 starts, he is consistently providing vital length, averaging just over six innings per outing. He rarely beats himself with free passes, posting a impressive 1.19 walks per nine innings during that stretch. The problem is what happens when opponents put the bat on the ball. Hitters are finding plenty of grass, racking up 10.59 hits per nine to saddle Freeland with a 5.82 ERA in those recent outings. He pitches to contact, and right now, that contact is doing damage.

On the other side, Liberatore is struggling to give his manager deep starts. Across his own last 10 appearances, the left-hander averages just 4.67 innings per outing, fighting a 5.79 ERA and a messy 1.48 WHIP. Liberatore constantly works out of the stretch, but he survives by missing bats, boasting a 9.64 strikeout rate over that span.

The X-factor today is the contrasting momentum of these two lineups. Despite the ugly win-loss record, Colorado’s offense is putting in work over their last 10 games, plating 5.1 runs per contest while hitting .266 as a unit. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ bats have gone mostly quiet, averaging just 3.3 runs with a sluggish .660 OPS over their last 10.

For Colorado to take this one, Freeland must maintain his elite command while also finding a way to induce weaker contact. If he survives the middle innings, the Rockies lineup needs to sustain its recent pace. Forcing Liberatore into high-leverage situations early and cashing in on his elevated WHIP is the blueprint to stopping this slide.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Cardinals -152 / Rockies +138
  • Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+136) / Rockies +1.5 (-163)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -114 / Under -106)

Our Pick

This afternoon’s matchup carries all the necessary ingredients for a high-scoring affair, making the over the smartest play on the board.

While the Cardinals’ offense looks sluggish on paper over their recent stretch, Freeland’s tendency to allow hits by the bunch presents a prime get-right opportunity. Once Freeland hands the ball over, St. Louis gets to swing against a Rockies bullpen that carries a bloated 4.94 ERA into the weekend. On the visiting side, Colorado is swinging the bats well right now. They should consistently put runners on base against Liberatore, who constantly battles traffic. Even if Liberatore limits the damage, the Cardinals’ relievers are carrying a middling 4.32 ERA, leaving the door open for late-inning scoring.

Both offenses are positioned to exploit vulnerable pitching. Caesars has the total at 8.5 with the over priced at -114. If you are looking to lay some juice, grab the Caesars promo for new users. Trust the bats to do the heavy lifting today.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-114)

Player Prop Pick

We are heading to the mound for our player prop today, backing Colorado starter Kyle Freeland to clear an attainable strikeout total. DraftKings sets his strikeout line at 3.5 with the over priced at -118, and the underlying metrics make this a strong investment.

Freeland is not going to overpower hitters with triple-digit velocity, but he consistently surpasses this surprisingly low threshold. The veteran lefty has cleared 3.5 strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts, averaging 5.33 punchouts per game in that window. Beyond recent form, the historical matchup plays directly into his hands. Freeland has recorded more than 3.5 strikeouts in three consecutive outings against the Cardinals.

Because he pitches to contact and avoids walks, Freeland is also efficient with his pitch count. He is averaging over six innings across his last 10 appearances, which means he should navigate the St. Louis batting order at least two or three times. That kind of volume provides plenty of runway to gather the four strikeouts required to cash the ticket.

For more daily Rockies news, deep analytical breakdowns, and betting value, check back in throughout the series.

Pick: Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-118)

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.