The Rockies took another hit yesterday, falling 7-2 to the visiting Reds. The offense managed just two runs on six hits as Colorado comes into today’s game having lost seven of its last 10.

Despite last night’s win, the Reds have also dropped 13 of their last 20 contests, but they found plenty of offensive life on Friday, racking up 11 hits and launched four home runs, proving that even a struggling lineup can get healthy fast in this altitude if you leave pitches out over the plate.

For the Rockies to compete in this one, they need to keep the ball in the yard and find some semblance of consistency from their lineup. The main challenge will be containing a Cincinnati offense that just proved it can hit for power at Coors Field. First pitch is slated for 1:10 p.m. MT this afternoon.

The Breakdown

Today’s matchup features a starting pitching battle between Cincinnati’s Rhett Lowder and Colorado’s Tomoyuki Sugano. For the Reds, Lowder has found it difficult to pitch deep into games or establish any real rhythm. Over his last 10 outings, the right-hander is averaging just 4.1 innings per start. He is constantly battling traffic on the bases, pitching to a bloated 1.88 WHIP. While he has shown solid strikeout ability with an 8.58 K/9, his inability to work efficient innings and give the bullpen a lengthy breather leaves Cincinnati highly vulnerable. When you put nearly two runners on base every inning at Coors Field, a random gap shot quickly turns into a crooked number.

On the other side, Sugano brings a different set of challenges to the mound. The right-hander is returning from a stint on the 15-day injured list due to a back issue retroactive to July 1, meaning stamina and rust are immediate questions. Even before the injury, Sugano wasn’t exactly missing bats. Over his last 10 appearances, he is striking out just 4.61 batters per nine innings. He relies heavily on balls in play, a pitch-to-contact approach that has resulted in a 5.98 ERA and a .290 opponent batting average over that span. Throwing a pitch-to-contact guy fresh off a back injury into the Coors Field blender is a risky proposition, to say the least.

The defining factor this afternoon will be whether Colorado’s offense can capitalize on Lowder’s frequent baserunners. Over their last 10 games, the Rockies have been incredibly quiet at the plate, averaging just 3.6 runs per contest and slugging a meager nine home runs. The Reds haven’t scored much more overall, averaging 3.8 runs per game in their last 10, but they have done serious damage when they connect. Cincinnati has launched 17 homers in that same timeframe with a solid .770 team OPS.

For the Rockies to pull out a win, the path is clear but difficult. Sugano must locate his pitches meticulously to avoid the long ball against a Cincinnati lineup leaning heavily on power. Meanwhile, Colorado’s bats have to show more patience. If they can exploit Lowder’s command issues, draw walks, and string together hits, they can chase him early and force Cincinnati into their bullpen ahead of schedule.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Reds -112 / Rockies -106
  • Run Line: Reds -1.5 (+132) / Rockies +1.5 (-159)
  • Over/Under: 13 (Over -104 / Under -116)

Our Pick

With both Rhett Lowder and Tomoyuki Sugano struggling to pitch deep into games, this matchup is destined to be decided by the bullpens. That is bad news for both sides in Denver. The Rockies’ relief corps has labored to a 4.98 bullpen ERA this season, while the Reds’ relievers haven’t been much better, carrying a 4.65 bullpen ERA into this afternoon.

When you combine those leaky late-inning units with a pair of starters who allow plenty of traffic on the basepaths, a high-scoring affair feels inevitable. Lowder walks too many guys, and Sugano is a returning contact pitcher facing a lineup that just hit four homers in this building.

BetMGM is showing the line for the total at 13 runs. While that number is sky-high, it is completely justified given the environment and the pitching depth on display today. If you are looking to get some action on this one, you can take advantage of a BetMGM promo code to sign up and grab the Over. Colorado’s bats have been quiet lately, but a matchup against Cincinnati’s vulnerable staff is the perfect remedy to stop the bleeding. Expect early runs and late fireworks as the bullpens fail to keep the scoring in check.

Pick: Over 13 (-104)

Player Prop Pick

We typically look to back a Colorado player in this spot, but the Rockies’ lineup is currently mired in a cold streak that makes them incredibly hard to trust with your money. With a massive 13-run total projected for this afternoon’s contest, taking an Under on a Colorado hitter at Coors Field is bad process, but taking an Over feels like blind faith. Instead, the cleanest edge comes from the visiting dugout.

We are taking Cincinnati’s Eugenio Suárez to eclipse 1.5 total bases. DraftKings has the Over priced at an appealing -111, offering solid value given his recent production and the specific matchup. Suárez has exceeded this mark in three of his last four games, averaging a robust 4.0 total bases per contest. Over his last 10 games, he is slugging .611 with four home runs, including a solo shot in yesterday’s victory over the Rockies.

He draws a highly favorable matchup against Sugano, who struggles to generate swings and misses. Over Sugano’s last 10 outings, he has surrendered a .290 opponent batting average and a concerning 1.88 home runs per nine innings. Given Sugano’s vulnerability to contact and the thin Denver air, Suárez is in a prime position to do damage again today. For more Rockies news, check back daily as we break down every angle of the season.

Pick: Eugenio Suárez Over 1.5 Total Bases

Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.