The Colorado Rockies have actually found a rhythm lately. Going 9-11 over their last 20 games – including recent road series wins over Arizona and San Francisco – showed a spark, but the payrollmaxxing Los Angeles Dodgers present a totally different set of problems. First pitch at Coors Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. MT.

The Dodgers roll into Denver with a championship-caliber roster, but curiously, they aren’t playing like it right now. Los Angeles has dropped 13 of its last 20 contests and split their last ten, most recently falling 4-2 to the Arizona Diamondbacks and dropping a series to the Brewers. The Dodgers are clearly built for October, but they are struggling to find consistency at the plate, which is a rare vulnerability for this lineup.

To compete tonight, the Rockies have to attack early and play with a lead, forcing a stumbling Dodgers squad to play from behind in the altitude.

The Breakdown

Tonight’s pitching matchup features veteran Tomoyuki Sugano taking the mound for Colorado against Los Angeles left-hander Blake Snell.

Sugano, to his credit, is 12-5 on a team that’s 50-74, and he’s recorded a 1.247 WHIP over his last 10 starts. In that 55.1-inning window, he is issuing a microscopic 1.63 walks per nine innings. Even though he is yielding a 4.88 ERA across that stretch, his pristine control forces opponents to earn their way on base. He isn’t beating himself.

On the other side, Snell has shown both extreme dominance and inefficiency. Coming off a long injury layoff, his strikeout rate has spiked to an absurd 15.0 K/9 over his last nine innings of work. The stuff is definitely still there. However, he is struggling to pitch deep into games, averaging just 4.5 innings per appearance in that same window. When Snell is on the mound, he misses bats, but his pitch counts have prevented him from sticking around to navigate the middle innings.

The true X-factor tonight is the uncharacteristic slump of the Dodgers’ lineup. Over their last 10 games, Los Angeles has gone strangely quiet, managing just 3.2 runs per contest and hitting a meager .215 as a team. They are reaching base at just a .280 clip in that span.

For the Rockies to pull off a victory, Sugano must pound the strike zone and leverage his elite walk rate to keep this stumbling Dodgers offense from waking up. Offensively, Colorado has to work deep counts against Snell. If the Rockies can inflate his pitch count and chase him before the fifth inning, they can dig into the Los Angeles bullpen early – and potentially generate enough run support to secure a home win.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers -255 / Colorado Rockies +224
  • Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (-167) / Rockies +1.5 (+139)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

Our Pick

The Dodgers are heavily favored tonight, but laying -255 on a team that has dropped 13 of its last 20 games offers no value whatsoever. Instead, look toward the total.

Caesars is offering the Over at -120, and if you are jumping in, be sure to take advantage of the Caesars promo for new users. We are backing the Over tonight.

Blake Snell is a strikeout machine, but his elevated pitch counts prevent him from going deep into games. That means Colorado will get plenty of looks at a Los Angeles bullpen that carries a middling 3.98 ERA. On the flip side, even with Tomoyuki Sugano throwing reliable strikes, he is backed by a Rockies bullpen struggling with a 4.86 ERA. Once Sugano exits, the Dodgers’ slumping bats will have a prime opportunity to finally find some rhythm against a vulnerable relief corps.

Expect both managers to dive into their bullpens early at Coors Field, paving the way for a late-game surge that clears the number.

Pick: Over 10.5 (-120)

Player Prop Pick

For tonight’s matchup, we are targeting the total bases market and backing a Colorado outfielder who has been swinging a consistent bat at Coors Field.

Caesars has Jake McCarthy to go over 1.5 total bases at +115, and the recent trends make this an appealing plus-money play. McCarthy has been thriving in Denver from the leadoff spot, exceeding 1.5 total bases in four of his last five home games while averaging 2.6 total bases over that span. Zooming out to his last 10 games overall, he is hitting a robust .317 with a .512 slugging percentage and racking up 1.3 hits per contest.

McCarthy’s career history against Dodgers starter Blake Snell is limited and quiet (just one hit in seven plate appearances), but Snell’s recent inefficiency means McCarthy will likely get multiple looks against the Los Angeles bullpen. Given his current hot streak, his aggressive approach at the plate, and the favorable hitting environment, backing McCarthy to keep his momentum going is the smart play.

Pick: Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

If you want to stay updated on the team as the season progresses, be sure to check out our latest Rockies news.

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.