Colorado Rockies all know that this season has been bleak, and dropping 14 of their last 20 games confirms what the standings already say. But if you look closely at the last week, they have actually found a little bit of traction. They took three of their last five, including Saturday’s 10-7 win over St. Louis, where the bats woke up to hang a six-run fifth inning on the board. Manager Warren Schaeffer expects this group to compete every single day, and they get another chance to prove they can string some offense together when first pitch flies at 1:10 p.m. MT this afternoon.

Across the diamond, the St. Louis Cardinals arrive in Denver playing middling baseball. They are sitting right at the .500 mark, splitting their last ten games right down the middle at 5-5 as their wild-card hopes quietly fade away. They have dealt with plenty of distractions this weekend, mostly stemming from Friday’s bizarre hat-tilt controversy involving home-plate umpire Doug Eddings and rookie pitcher Hancel Rincon. Manager Oliver Marmol got tossed defending his young pitcher, and while the Cardinals showed some clubhouse unity in response on Saturday (along with a handful of Rockies, as well), they still struggle to consistently win baseball games.

To take this series, the Rockies need to jump on St. Louis early and maintain the clean defense they showcased yesterday. If Colorado can avoid giving away extra outs and keep generating traffic on the bases, they have a very realistic path to securing another victory in front of the home crowd today.

The Breakdown

This afternoon’s pitching matchup features Rockies starter Tanner Gordon squaring off against St. Louis right-hander Kyle Leahy.

The defining storyline here is Leahy’s workload. St. Louis is heavily managing his innings right now as he blows past his career highs. Even though he is missing a ton of bats – posting 9.56 strikeouts per nine innings over his last 10 appearances – the Cardinals have him on a tight leash. He is averaging just 4.80 innings per start during that stretch, and there have even been whispers of a phantom injured list stint just to get him some rest. He brings a 1.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP into this one, but the Rockies will not have to look at him for long if they work deep counts.

On the other side, Gordon gives Colorado decent length, averaging 5.47 innings per start over his last 10 outings. While his 3.91 ERA in that timeframe is fine, the glaring issue for Gordon is the long ball. He is serving up 1.86 home runs per nine innings, which is a dangerous way to live at Coors Field against a lineup that can do damage.

St. Louis has slugged 15 home runs over their last 10 games, averaging over six runs a contest. If Gordon leaves pitches out over the plate, the Cardinals have the firepower to make him pay. Meanwhile, the Rockies are boasting a .360 on-base percentage over their own 10-game stretch. For Colorado to win, Gordon has to keep the ball in the yard and survive into the sixth inning. If he can avoid the crooked numbers, the Rockies’ lineup can grind down Leahy, force an early exit, and attack a vulnerable relief corps.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Colorado Rockies (+116) / St. Louis Cardinals (-135)
  • Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-130) / St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+109)
  • Over/Under: 11.0 (Over -114 / Under -106)

Our Pick

Neither team offers much security on the moneyline, so we are turning our attention to the total. Backing the over at Coors Field is a standard operating procedure for a reason, especially with the vulnerabilities on the mound today.

Gordon’s tendency to allow home runs is a massive liability against a Cardinals lineup that is currently swinging for the fences. The Rockies, meanwhile, are getting guys on base at an excellent clip and facing a starter who is heavily restricted by pitch counts. Once both starters exit, the late innings look ripe for scoring. Colorado’s bullpen carries a shaky 4.73 ERA into this matchup, while the St. Louis relief unit sits at a highly beatable 4.56 ERA. There are plenty of runs hiding in the final four innings of this game.

Caesars has the total set at 11.0, and if you are laying action on this matchup, be sure to take advantage of the Caesars promo for new users. Expect both offenses to find gaps and plate runs against two tired pitching staffs.

Pick: Over 11.0 (-114)

Player Prop Pick

We are circling Adael Amador for our top player prop again this afternoon, backing the surging infielder to clear 1.5 total bases.

Since his recall from Triple-A Albuquerque at the start of September, the 23-year-old former top prospect has finally looked comfortable at the major league level. Over his last 10 appearances, Amador is slashing .400 with a 1.203 OPS, mashing two home runs and nine RBI. Beyond the raw power, he has registered a hit in seven of his last eight games, establishing himself as a reliable source of offense.

Today, he draws a highly favorable platoon matchup against Leahy. While Leahy has kept runs off the board, he struggles against left-handed bats, allowing a .307 average and a bloated .847 OPS to that side of the plate. Batting from the left side against the right-handed Leahy, Amador is in a prime spot to exploit those splits.

FanDuel is offering this line at +135, which provides excellent value to back a hitter squarely in the middle of a hot streak. For more analysis on the organization’s prospects and future, keep tabs on the latest Rockies news.

Pick: Adael Amador Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.