With a 40-61 record and losers of seven of their last 10 games, the Colorado Rockies are still searching for answers. Last night’s 9-6 defeat to the Cincinnati Reds was a perfect microcosm of their issues: the lineup slugged four home runs – three by All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman – but it still wasn’t enough to overcome a pitching staff that continues to bleed runs. First pitch at Coors Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. MT.

On the other side of the diamond, the Washington Nationals arrive in Denver playing middling baseball. Washington sits exactly at the .500 mark for the year at 50-50, though they have hit a minor rut, going 4-6 over their own last 10 contests.

For the Rockies to find a way to compete tonight, they need their starting rotation to give the lineup a fighting chance. Outslugging opponents is always on the table in the altitude of Denver, but relying on them to generate crooked numbers every night is a risky strategy.

The Breakdown

The pitching matchup tonight features veteran left-hander Kyle Freeland taking the mound for Colorado against Washington’s Andrew Alvarez. Freeland’s recent form presents a fascinating contrast between raw command and actual results. Across his last 10 starts, Freeland has been aggressively pounding the strike zone, issuing a minuscule 0.99 walks per nine innings. The problem is that all those strikes have been especially hittable. He has pitched to a bloated 7.45 ERA in that span, surrendering a punishing 1.82 home runs per nine frames. Throwing strikes is only an advantage if you aren’t leaving the ball over the heart of the plate, and right now, Freeland is getting squared up consistently.

Alvarez has taken the exact opposite approach to his recent workload. Across his last 10 appearances, he has battled major command issues, handing out 4.78 walks per nine innings and inflating his WHIP to a dangerous 1.59. Yet, despite the constant traffic on the basepaths, he has managed to limit the overall damage to a 4.30 ERA. His survival skill? Keeping the ball in the yard. Alvarez is yielding just 0.24 home runs per nine innings while racking up an impressive 9.08 strikeouts per nine. He puts men on, but he misses the bats required to escape the jam.

The defining factor in this matchup is whether Colorado’s lineup can punish Alvarez for his control issues before Washington’s surging bats get to Freeland. Over their last 10 games, the Nationals have been legitimately potent, averaging 6.50 runs per game and mashing 2.10 home runs per contest with an .874 OPS. The Rockies, conversely, have averaged a more modest 4.10 runs and 1.20 homers per game over their own last 10 outings.

If Colorado wants to walk away with a victory, Freeland has to avoid the big fly. He needs to leverage his elite walk rate to pitch to soft contact, rather than giving a power-hitting lineup fastballs they can elevate. At the plate, the Rockies have to stay patient. Alvarez will give them free passes; if Colorado takes those walks and capitalizes on the inevitable traffic, they can manufacture enough offense to tilt the game in their favor.

Odds & Lines

  • Moneyline: Washington Nationals (-124) / Colorado Rockies (+105)
  • Run Line: Washington Nationals -1.5 (+119) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-143)
  • Over/Under: 12 (Over -107 / Under -113)

Our Pick

Looking at the current trajectory of these two teams, it’s difficult to back the Rockies tonight when their starter is serving up home runs at an alarming rate. Coors Field is the worst venue in professional baseball to pitch in when you are struggling to keep the ball in the yard, and the Nationals are hitting the cover off the ball right now.

While Andrew Alvarez has a frustrating habit of putting runners on base, he misses enough bats to navigate his way out of high-danger chances. Kyle Freeland, on the other hand, relies heavily on contact, and that contact has been loud over his last 10 starts. Washington’s relievers can be a bit leaky, carrying a 5.17 bullpen ERA for the season, but they shouldn’t need to be flawless if their lineup jumps on Freeland early. Colorado’s bullpen offers very little safety net anyway, sitting with a 4.89 ERA of its own.

Caesars is offering the Nationals on the moneyline at -124, which feels like fair value given the clear disparity in how these two pitchers handle contact. If you are backing Washington tonight, take a moment to look into the Caesars promo available for new users before laying your wagers.

Pick: Washington Nationals ML (-124)

Player Prop Pick

While it is always tempting to target Colorado’s hitters in the thin air of Coors Field, the most compelling betting value tonight requires looking at the mound. We are targeting Kyle Freeland to fall short of his strikeout total.

Freeland has struggled to generate whiffs recently. Because he pitches to contact and is currently yielding runs in bunches, his outings are frequently cut short by skipper Warren Schaeffer. The short leash severely limits his opportunities to accumulate strikeouts, no matter the matchup.

The recent betting trends heavily support fading his punchouts in this spot. Freeland has failed to exceed 4.5 strikeouts in eight of his last 11 games, including falling short in four of his last six starts at home. DraftKings currently has his line set at 4.5 strikeouts, with the under sitting at a very reasonable -128. Given Washington’s hot offense and their propensity to hit the ball out of the park right now, Freeland is highly likely to face an early exit.

For more daily game breakdowns and all the latest Rockies news, stick with us throughout the season.

Pick: Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.