Saturday night’s UFC 329 card features the much-anticipated return of Conor McGregor to take on Max Holloway, along with Benoit Saint-Denis going against Paddy Pimblett. McGregor returning to the ring for the first time in five years is sure to draw a massive crowd of die-hard and casual viewers.
While this isn’t the first time McGregor and Holloway are going to fight each other, it is the first time that fans can trade on the outcome of the card, along with a collection of prop markets on the fight. With prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, users can buy event contracts on the outright winner, how long the fight will last, and whether it ends in a KO, TKO, submission, or decision. There are even markets for those less interested in the fight itself; traders can even buy contracts on what the announcers will say during the match.
What are the Best Prediction Markets for UFC 329?
With McGregor’s comeback, many fans are eager to get in on the action on the Notorious. Since his last fight, prediction markets have become one of the most popular ways to get some skin in the game. While there are now many options to choose from, Polymarket and Kalshi have separated themselves from the pack as the clear frontrunners.
Kalshi was the first prediction market to gain CFTC approval and quickly established itself as an industry leader. Polymarket had a rockier start to entering the US market, but since gaining CFTC approval, it has become the official prediction market of the UFC.
As two of the biggest names in the game, they offer the largest variety of markets, along with the most liquidity to help traders buy and sell contracts with as little friction as possible.
Best UFC 329 Prediction Markets on Polymarket
As the official prediction market partner of the UFC, Polymarket is primed for an exciting night of fighting and trading. Going into the match, Holloway is the favorite on Polymarket with a 66% implied win probability, with traders giving a slight edge to him winning by KO or TKO at 51%.
Only on Polymarket can users find UFC 329 prediction markets not only on who will win, but also on how many rounds the match will go, if it goes the distance, or if Holloway or McGregor wins with a TKO, KO, or submission. Adding a social layer for traders on Polymarket, McGregor’s loyal fan base has already lit up the market’s chat with some friendly banter.
Traders aren’t just limited to buying and selling contracts on the main card; they can also trade on markets for the Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis match, along with opening card fights like Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista, King Green vs. Terrance McKinney, and Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison.
New users who sign up using the Polymarket promo code MILE here will unlock a $50 bonus after making a $20 deposit.
Best UFC 329 Prediction Markets on Kalshi
While Kalshi may not be the official UFC prediction market, it has a considerable amount of market volume on UFC 329 cards. For traders who may want to exit their positions early or want to purchase a large amount of event contracts for the fight, this could be a deciding factor on which prediction platform to use.
Kalshi offers similar UFC 329 prediction markets, such as moneylines, “Method of Victory,” “Round of Victory,” “Round of Finish,” and “Go the Distance.” Traders on Kalshi also believe that Holloway will win, giving him a 65% implied win probability. However, traders on Kalshi have much more confidence in Holloway to win by TKO/KO/DQ with a 74% implied win probability. This is a case where it could pay for traders to shop around for the best price if they want to buy into this market, as Polymarket offers considerably more value on this outcome at the moment.
Kalshi offers a unique market not found on Polymarket for UFC 329. Users can trade on words the announcers will say during the fight. The current favorites are “train/trained/training,” “knockout/knock out/knocked out,” and “tired/tiring,” which also gives traders some extra data on how other traders think the match will play out. There are also some interesting long-shot options like “what a fight,” “Dana,” and “lights out.”
Use the Kalshi promo code MILE when registering a new account here to unlock a $15 welcome bonus after completing $15 in trades on any market.
