Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and the Sunday board is packed with opportunity. Kickoffs start at 11:00 a.m. MT, featuring intriguing matchups where early line movement tells a compelling story. Whether you’re sweating out the Buffalo Bills laying seven points or exploring the NFL prediction markets for a high-total shootout like the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, finding value means knowing exactly when to lay some juice. The afternoon window keeps the leverage high, including a 2:05 p.m. MT defensive tilt in Minnesota and a surprising AFC West clash in Las Vegas at 2:25 p.m. MT. Let’s isolate the edges – and dive into the board!
The Odds
| Matchup | Kickoff Time (MT) | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | 11:00 a.m. MT | NYG: +119 ARI: -140 |
NYG: +2.5 (-108) ARI: -2.5 (-112) |
O/U 44.5 (O -106 / U -114) |
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 11:00 a.m. MT | BUF: -325 NE: +260 |
BUF: -7 (-105) NE: +7 (-115) |
O/U 50.0 (O -109 / U -110) |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 11:00 a.m. MT | CHI: -186 NYJ: +154 |
CHI: -3.5 (-109) NYJ: +3.5 (-111) |
O/U 43.0 (O -110 / U -109) |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | 11:00 a.m. MT | HOU: -159 DAL: +134 |
HOU: -3 (-110) DAL: +3 (-110) |
O/U 48.5 (O -105 / U -115) |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | 11:00 a.m. MT | PHI: +158 LA: -189 |
PHI: +3.5 (-106) LA: -3.5 (-113) |
O/U 42.5 (O -114 / U -106) |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11:00 a.m. MT | TB: +150 GB: -181 |
TB: +3.5 (-115) GB: -3.5 (-104) |
O/U 39.5 (O -106 / U -114) |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | 11:00 a.m. MT | BAL: -719 TEN: +514 |
BAL: -11.5 (-110) TEN: +11.5 (-110) |
O/U 42.5 (O -113 / U -107) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | 11:00 a.m. MT | CIN: -143 JAC: +120 |
CIN: -2.5 (-116) JAC: +2.5 (-104) |
O/U 51.5 (O -106 / U -113) |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 2:05 p.m. MT | MIN: -559 MIA: +424 |
MIN: -10 (-109) MIA: +10 (-110) |
O/U 38.5 (O -110 / U -110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 2:25 p.m. MT | LV: +183 KC: -221 |
LV: +4.5 (-109) KC: -4.5 (-111) |
O/U 47.5 (O -112 / U -108) |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | 2:25 p.m. MT | SEA: -365 LAC: +289 |
SEA: -7 (-115) LAC: +7 (-105) |
O/U 42.5 (O -116 / U -104) |
Our Picks
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
The Cardinals opened as 1-point favorites at MetLife Stadium and have since been bet up to -2.5. With the spread marching toward Arizona, following the smart money trend is a calculated investment.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-112)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo remains a rock-solid 7-point home favorite at Highmark Stadium. The market hasn’t flinched on this spread since it opened. When laying exactly a touchdown without heavy extra juice, it’s a straightforward play.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -7 (-105)
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Chicago’s moneyline at Soldier Field has plummeted from -426 down to -186, signaling heavy market movement toward the visiting Jets. Snagging the hook with a road underdog catching 3.5 points is where you find true value.
Pick: New York Jets +3.5 (-111)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
The total at Reliant Stadium opened at 47.5 and ticked up to a consensus 48.5. With the market baking in a slightly higher-scoring affair, backing the over is the logical move.
Pick: Over 48.5 (-105)
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams are laying 3.5 points on the road at Lincoln Financial Field. The odds and spread have flatlined since opening, indicating unwavering market confidence in the road favorite. Trust the stagnation.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-113)
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay opened at a modest -123 on the moneyline and has steamed all the way to -181 at Raymond James Stadium. We will gladly ride that significant line movement and back the Packers to cover the short number.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-104)
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is an imposing 11.5-point favorite at M&T Bank Stadium. Armed with a towering -719 moneyline, the market clearly expects a blowout. Lay the double-digit points and don’t overthink it.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -11.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Paycor Stadium and remains anchored there, though the juice shifted slightly to -116. Laying under a field goal at home? Always an appealing approach.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-116)
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is laying 10 points at U.S. Bank Stadium, yet the total sits at a suppressed 38.5. This script screams defensive struggle, making the under the most sound play on the board. If that’s uncomfortable, lowering that total with an alt-line and then taking the over also makes sense here.
Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite inside Allegiant Stadium. Backed by steady moneyline pricing at -221, the road favorite is perfectly positioned to cover this mid-range number.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-111)
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle opened as 6.5-point favorites at Lumen Field, quickly moving to -7. With the market leaning slightly toward the home squad, laying the touchdown is a sensible investment.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115)
Player Prop Picks
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
With a passing yards total set at a manageable 208.5, Jameis Winston offers excellent value at home.
Pick: Jameis Winston Over 208.5 passing yards (-114)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
For bettors shopping the best prediction markets, Josh Allen’s 31.5 rushing yards line is an appealing target.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-113)
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Priced at -104, Geno Smith is well-positioned to eclipse 32.5 pass attempts.
Pick: Geno Smith Over 32.5 pass attempts (-104)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
In a matchup carrying a climbing game total, Dak Prescott can comfortably surpass his 266.5 passing yards total in Texas.
Pick: Dak Prescott Over 266.5 passing yards (-115)
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Priced efficiently at -113, Saquon Barkley’s 69.5 rushing yards line provides compelling over value for the home-team back.
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 69.5 rushing yards (-113)
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jordan Love is priced fairly in the market to beat his 240.5 passing yards projection.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 240.5 passing yards (-110)
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry’s towering 96.5 rushing yards line reflects the heavy workload expected of him as a massive 11.5-point favorite.
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 96.5 rushing yards (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
With the juice sitting at -113, Joe Burrow should clear his 267.5 passing yards mark.
Pick: Joe Burrow Over 267.5 passing yards (-113)
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
At a low -114 price, Aaron Jones offers very fair value to rush for the required 66 yards.
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 65.5 rushing yards (-114)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Patrick Mahomes carries a very manageable 236.5 passing yards total into this AFC West showdown.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 236.5 passing yards (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
The market needing just 200 passing yards from Justin Herbert makes his over highly favorable.
Pick: Justin Herbert Over 199.5 passing yards (-113)
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.
