The Denver Nuggets have won 11 of their last 14 games and appear to have turned a bit of a corner as a team. The offense has been a constant during that stretch, and the defense has improved.
But that can’t compete with the Sacramento Kings, who have won 10 of their last 11 games and have rebounded from what was looking like an incredibly disappointing season. The Kings are also playing their best basketball of the season at this very moment, which means we are in for a very interesting game.
Let’s delve into the Sacramento Kings matchup:
Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic
Sacramento: De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis
Key Bench Players
Denver: Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, DeAndre Jordan
Sacramento: Keon Ellis, Kevin Huerter, Trey Lyles, Alex Len
Notable Injuries
Denver: Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Sacramento: None (but they’re on the second night of a back-to-back so that could change)
Key for the Nuggets – Defend without fouling
The Kings are on the second night of a back-to-back heading West-to-East in Denver after playing in Sacramento last night. It’s a tall task for them, especially after their game against the Golden State Warriors went down to the wire. In that game, the Warriors outshot the Kings but lost because they fouled constantly. The Kings went 30-of-32 at the free throw line in a game they won by six points. The Warriors attempted just 13 free throws.
Denver’s won the free throw margin pretty consistently, making more free throws than the opposition 26 times out of 43 games. In those 26 games, the Nuggets are 18-8.
If the Nuggets win the free throw margin tomorrow and they don’t simply lay down the red carpet to open shots instead, they have a very good chance of winning.
Important Matchup – Julian Strawther vs Keon Ellis
One of the reasons the Kings have improved so much after the firing of Mike Brown is the increased role of Keon Ellis. The defensive off-guard has been essential to the Kings this season, bringing a skill set that’s necessary for any team trying to win. Ellis is averaging 7.7 points and 1.4 steals in 21.5 minutes per game while shooting 44.5% from three-point range, and the Kings have a +9.8 Net Rating when Ellis is on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass prior to last night’s Kings game.
Ellis will guard Jamal Murray, but he will also guard Julian Strawther off the bench and likely match his minutes. Can the Nuggets continue to find their stride with the bench minutes when matching up with a guard like Ellis? Strawther will be a big deal in that regard, and if he can build upon his career high of 23 points he scored on Tuesday, that would be a major advantage for the Nuggets.
Number of the Day – 15.7
That’s the Nuggets Net Rating with Aaron Gordon and DeAndre Jordan on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. +15.7 Net Rating in 119 possessions. That of course doesn’t include any minutes with Nikola Jokic on the floor. It’s all bench minutes, and the Nuggets have been very successful with that frontcourt duo of late. It’s an incredibly small sample size and built on an incredibly high eFG% and free throw rate. Those are likely unsustainable numbers, but Denver’s won those minutes with offense surprisingly.
Have the Nuggets found a formula without Nikola Jokic? Probably not, but they’ve definitely found a temporary solution while Gordon works his way back into the starting lineup.
Nugget who should have a good game: Russell Westbrook
The Nuggets sixth man turned starter has been tremendous in the starting lineup, averaging 14.5 points, 7.6 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game to go with a sterling 59.6 True Shooting percentage. Jokic has helped coax the most out of Westbrook’s game, and he’s clearly in a good place right now. The Nuggets will need his production tonight against Sacramento, as well as his defense. Christian Braun will guard one of De’Aaron Fox or DeMar DeRozan, while Westbrook will match up with the other. Malik Monk will also need to be accounted for as well.
I expect Westbrook to continue pushing the pace and finding passing and driving lanes while working with Jokic. The Kings aren’t a great rim protection team and the Nuggets know that. Expect Westbrook to be relentless when he gets the opportunities and to force feed Jokic in the paint against mostly smaller defenders.
