Last night was undoubtedly the lowest point of this Denver Nuggets season.
The Nuggets suffered a 113-96 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3, falling behind 1-2 in the playoff series. After the Nuggets looked like they were in control of the series at the beginning of Game 2, the momentum has flipped the exact opposite direction with the Timberwolves taking the series lead in dominant fashion.
In a surprise leading up to tipoff, Aaron Gordon was ruled out with a left calf injury after popping up as probable the previous day. Gordon was downgraded to questionable and later ruled out by head coach David Adelman and the Nuggets leading up to the game, though Nikola Jokic shared he knew Gordon would miss the game multiple days ago.
Gordon’s absence, on top of Peyton Watson’s, clearly affected the Nuggets in certain ways. Denver’s lack of athleticism showed through, and simply having versatile players on the floor would’ve helped in a number of areas. That’s not why they lost though. This loss felt preordained just the opening tip.
That dominance began in the first quarter when Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets scored just 11 points as a team, falling behind early and never recovering within a single digit point margin. 11 points was tied for the fewest of any quarter the Nuggets played this season with a random January night vs the Brooklyn Nets without Nikola Jokic on the floor. Last night, Jokic was on the floor, and the Timberwolves took advantage.
Jokic’s struggles were front and center for everyone to see, shooting just 1-of-8 in the first quarter and an absurd 7-of-26 from the field overall. The production was reasonable at 27 points and 15 rebounds, though he had just 3 assists which highlighted Denver’s shooting struggles as a team.
But this game wasn’t about the team. This game was about Jokic’s clear discomfort attacking Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves. When he attacked the paint, he was tentative, ground bound, and utilizing a lot of hesitations and fakes that Gobert didn’t fall for. When Jokic settled for jumpers, he shot just 2-of-10 from three overall and is now 5-of-24 from three on the series. That shooting inefficiency, along with Gobert’s strength, mobility, and savviness near the basket, gave Jokic one of the worst shooting performances of his NBA career.
Jokic wasn’t the only one to struggle either. Jamal Murray had 16 points and 4 assists while shooting a paltry 5-of-17 from the field and 0-of-5 from three. Outside of the first half of Game 2, Murray’s scoring inefficiency is catching up with the Nuggets in a major way. Jaden McDaniels has mostly flummoxed Murray with his length, athleticism, and physicality on the ball.
Starting in place of Aaron Gordon, Spencer Jones was the only starter to shoot well, going 2-of-3 from the field, both three-pointers. Jones at least switched and guarded his position pretty well. Cam Johnson and Christian Braun, on the other hand, combined for 8 points on 10 shots and 6 free throw attempts. With a combined 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block between them in 47 minutes, this was about as un-impactful as two starting wings could possibly be in a playoff environment.
Off the bench, the Nuggets had some surprising contributions from Zeke Nnaji, who played backup center over Jonas Valanciunas and even played some power forward next to Jokic at times. He was a lone bright spot for Denver. Julian Strawther really struggled in his first minutes of the series (at least until garbage time) while Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown were merely fine.
It’s hard to tell who Denver’s most impactful player was in a positive way. It was probably Jones, Brown, or Nnaji. That should frustrate a lot of people, and it’s not a good indicator of success for Denver. The opposite, in fact.
What’s most discouraging from this loss for Denver is two things.
First, it was about as easy for Minnesota as it’s been in a long time. They attacked the Nuggets defense and made easy plays. They guarded Denver to force tough shots for most of the night. When the Nuggets finally got open shots, they bricked all of them, and the Timberwolves turned those misses into easy baskets of their own.
Second, when Jokic is struggling like this, it’s difficult to see the Nuggets finding success. It’s rare for the Nuggets to win despite Jokic’s struggles. Murray struggled too, but the Nuggets have had experience making up for bad Murray games before. How often had they ever had to “make up for” the best player in the world? That’s a rarity, and certainly one the Nuggets aren’t built to survive.
The Nuggets can’t just bench Jokic. He has to figure it out, and he better figure it out fast. Game 4 is the definitive moment of this series. Are the Nuggets going to roll over and falter, allowing the Wolves to take a commanding 3-1 lead? Or, are the Nuggets going to respond to adversity as they often have and tie up the series at 2-2 going back to Denver?
A lot will depend on Aaron Gordon’s health, but not nearly as much as Jokic’s ability to get out of whatever funk he’s in. Murray getting going would be ideal as well. If both were to score 60 points on 40 shot attempts instead of the 43 points on 40 attempts they combined for tonight, that would be difference in the 17-point margin from Game 3 (though the score was closer than the game itself).
Expecting the Nuggets to figure this out isn’t that much to ask. They brought championship expectations into the postseason, but faltering in the first round before those expectations are ever close to being met would be quite a reality check. We will soon find out how tethered to reality the Nuggets actually are.
