Nikola Jokic dictates everything the Denver Nuggets do.

It’s also possible that he will dictate everything the Los Angeles Lakers do for the next few games.

The Nuggets and Lakers will face off tonight in Game 1 of their first round playoff series, and Jokic is at the center of it all. Denver knows it, and Los Angeles knows it too. LeBron James had some glowing things to say about the soon-to-be three-time MVP after his first practice at Ball Arena.

“He’s one of the best players to ever play this game. It’s that simple.”

It’s rare for anybody other than LeBron to take centerstage in a playoff series, but that’s exactly what’s happening once again between these two teams. Last playoff series, there was a question of whether Anthony Davis, Jokic’s center counterpart, would be the best possible option to shut Jokic down. The greatest offensive big man meets the greatest defensive big man was the narrative heading into Game 1.

Jokic ripped that narrative to shreds across four playoff games, then continued to dominate the next three regular season games the two matched up against each other. The Lakers have tried to find ways to approach the matchup differently, often replacing Davis with Rui Hachimura as the primary defensive assignment against Jokic. While that plan worked initially, the Nuggets have now seen it across seven games and two different seasons. They’re well prepared for it by now.

So, it will be on the Lakers to make the first move. Denver’s going to get the ball to Jokic in the post and at the nail. They’re going to involve Murray and Jokic in pick and roll and dribbled handoff actions with regularity. They will use Michael Porter Jr. for spacing. Both sides know it, and how the Lakers approach that quandary will determine how the rest of the series goes.

See, the Lakers have mostly matched Davis’ minutes to Jokic throughout the last seven games. In the roughly 280 minutes Jokic has played against the Lakers between last year’s playoffs and this year’s regular season, just 13 minutes and six seconds have been without Davis on the floor. Lakers head coach Darvin Ham likes to match their minutes, meaning that it’s fair to expect Davis to once again match Jokic on the floor roughly 95.32% of the time.

That choice has certain ripple effects. First, it forces Jokic to constantly be working either against Davis directly or with Davis in close proximity. Whether the Lakers decide to guard Jokic with Davis, Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, even LeBron James, Davis will always be out there protecting the rim. The Nuggets will need to attack Davis in transition, especially if he goes for offensive rebounds against Jokic. That might be Jokic’s most important skill in this series: pushing the tempo and creating advantages for his team while Davis is scrambling to catch up.

If the Lakers decide to guard Jokic with Davis and are STILL forced to get in rotation behind him? Good luck with that.

The other reason matching Davis’ minutes to Jokic matters is that it doesn’t allow Davis to impact bench units. That’s not the Lakers regular rotation (usually, Davis goes long in the first and third quarters while LeBron staggers with the bench unit in between) and it doesn’t look like much of an option.

As much success as the Lakers might find with Davis going at Aaron Gordon or Peyton Watson on the Nuggets second unit, they probably can’t leave themselves vulnerable in the Jokic minutes. Asking Hachimura to guard Jokic with Davis roaming behind him is one thing. Asking Hachimura to do it with Jaxson Hayes in help position is a little different. The Hayes matchup also hasn’t been one that Jokic has had any problems with in the past either, so that’s probably out of the question.

Could LeBron guard Jokic for a bit? Sure, and he’d probably do quite well because he’s insane. We saw the ramifications of that choice though and how it impacted LeBron’s energy and effectiveness on the other end of the floor, and the Lakers need LeBron to dictate matchups too. Perhaps it’s something he could do in a pinch, but expecting him to do it for more than six minutes or a quarter isn’t reasonable.

So, it will be Davis, and it will probably be Davis guarding Jokic straight up more frequently.

That helps Denver’s bench in the non-Jokic minutes, something I’ve consistently thought about for a while. During the three regular season matchups this year, the Nuggets lost 32 non-Jokic minutes against the Lakers by 11 points. That’s not that bad, especially when the Nuggets won Jokic’s 112 minutes by 41 points. There aren’t going to be a ton of non-Jokic minutes, likely the first four minutes of both the second and fourth quarters if the Nuggets can manage it.

During that bench time, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon will most likely be on the floor together. Look for Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Justin Holiday to join them initially, a wing-heavy lineup focused on defense. Holiday might be a surprise to some, but the Nuggets were successful in his bench minutes against the Lakers this year. His three-point shooting and defense give Murray some extra breathing room when he’s trying to generate offense.

Now, the Lakers are sure to send a ton of resources at slowing down Murray, including Gabe Vincent, a solid, if undersized defender at the point guard position. Murray’s familiar with Vincent, and while the former Miami Heat guard is a good defender, he’s not the most difficult matchup Murray’s ever had. Murray will have to find ways to generate space and generate good shots against Vincent, who cannot be allowed to impact this matchup in a significant way if the Nuggets want to win the series.

 

Spencer Dinwiddie will get some run against Murray as a bigger option, as will Taurean Prince. LeBron could also spend time there, but again, the energy factor is something to consider. Perhaps the Lakers will break from their expected playoff rotation to add in a wing defender like Jarred Vanderbilt, Cam Reddish or Max Christie, but Vanderbilt and Reddish are currently injured, and Christie is so young, likely untrustable in this situation.

No, the Lakers will simply double team Murray whenever they can, hard hedges out of the pick and roll, and selling out from the weak side to get the ball out of Murray’s hands. That will lead to Braun and Watson getting more creative opportunities with the ball in their hands. Are they ready for that burden? Probably not, but they’ll almost certainly be forced to grow up fast.

Jackson will play the point guard minutes that Murray doesn’t play, at least initially. Expecting Murray to play more than about 36 minutes out of the gate is probably not reasonable, so look for Jackson to come in during the first and third quarters to spell Murray and then come back out when Murray’s ready to return.

The Nuggets know they can’t go to the two-point guard lineups a ton, despite a need for secondary ball handling in bench units. The defensive stability is too important, and when Jackson and Murray both play, Denver’s size and athleticism on the perimeter gets a bit shaky. Perhaps the Nuggets could get away with that in certain lineups, but any time LeBron is out there in those bench looks, expect him to hunt Denver’s point guards in the post and put them in compromising positions.

Those are the primary minute and rotation breakdowns. From Denver’s side, it’s relatively simple. Every starter will play 35+ minutes, and the Nuggets will likely have to account for about 50 to 60 bench minutes every game. In this series, about 35 of those will go to Braun and Watson as defensive wings, while Jackson and Holiday will be offense/defense subs off the bench. Perhaps DeAndre Jordan or Zeke Nnaji will get off the bench for the occasional backup center minutes, but that responsibility will almost certain go to Gordon staggering with the second unit.

Gordon carries a heavy burden for Denver. He will be a primary defender on LeBron for much of the series, switch onto bigger and smaller players as necessary, work the dunker spot for the starting offense, and also be the center for Denver’s bench offense. It’s important to remember that as Jokic, Murray, and Porter are expected to absorb the lion share of the credit. Gordon’s the connector the Nuggets always needed, and hopefully he continues to be credited as such.

Ultimately though, this series will come back to Jokic and Murray, Denver’s unstoppable, dynamic duo. If those two replicate their series against the Lakers from a year ago, it will be difficult for the Lakers to match up. Guys like D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are better players than before, but one of them, likely Reaves, is going to have to spend a lot of time guarding Murray in the starting and closing minutes. That’s an advantage the Nuggets need to exploit, especially when the going gets tough in clutch time.

I have the Nuggets winning this series in five games. There’s a scenario where the Lakers make that look foolish and either push the series longer or win it entirely. There’s also a scenario where the Nuggets simply replicate what’s happened the last handful of matchups, because the Lakers haven’t made enough changes to justify feeling exponentially better about their chances.

Time will tell if the Nuggets make me look like a genius or a fool, but so far, they’ve haven’t led me astray. That’s the power of Jokic and Murray. When they’re together, it simplifies everything.